With spring break just weeks away, and snowbirds looking to dodge a blustery winter, the recent unrest in Mexico has left travelers concerned about whether visiting the country is safe right now.
While tourism is usually unaffected by cartel violence, which is often restricted to local communities, this time was different. Flights in and out of Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara were scrapped, and incidents near other popular tourism areas — including Cancún and Playa del Carmen — prompted temporary “shelter in place” warnings from the U.S. government.
“Although the situation will likely stabilize in the coming days, this marks a new phase in cartel reactions to high-level enforcement actions,” said Kent Webber, a former Pentagon officer and a senior manager at Global Rescue, a U.S.-based travel safety organization. “No travel to Mexico is ever risk-free,” he said, adding that the environment can shift quickly when senior cartel figures are killed or captured.
Here’s what travelers with plans to visit Mexico in the coming weeks should know:
What’s the latest with the cartels?
On Sunday, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, or “El Mencho,” the head of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel, was killed in Jalisco State, triggering a spate of violence and unrest, including gunfights, fires and roadblocks. Mexican officials said they had arrested 70 people and killed 34 people suspected of being cartel members, while 25 members of the National Guard have been killed.
As of late Monday, “shelter in place” alerts by the U.S. government for its citizens were still in effect in Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta and Ciudad Guzman, though much of the unrest had waned. A security alert by the U.S. Mission to Mexico noted that “the situation has returned to normal” in the states of Baja California, Quintana Roo and Oaxaca and stated that “all airports in Mexico are open, and most airports are operating normally.”
Nearly 10,000 Mexican troops have been deployed to quell the unrest, according to the Mexican government. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday that “the country is at peace.”
How have tourists been affected?
The unrest has rattled travelers headed to Mexico, where visitors have reported canceled flights and hotel lockdowns and have posted videos of fires at supermarkets. Other travelers said few businesses were open and roads were blocked.
Still, experts say that tourists are usually largely insulated from cartel violence.
Historically, the Mexican drug cartels have largely left tourists and expatriates alone to avoid inviting unwanted government scrutiny. But as larger cartels fragment into smaller and more opportunistic factions, that restraint can erode, Mr. Webber said. “Decentralization increases unpredictability, and unpredictability elevates incidental risk,” he said.
Since tourism powers many of Mexico’s local economies, the government applies a heavier security presence in major tourist zones. Many resorts also employ their own private security.
Robert J. Bunker, the director of research and analysis at C/O Futures, a security consulting group, said he doubted that cartel members would target American citizens. “But this cartel is very much a wild card,” he added, referring to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Mexico’s most powerful criminal organization.
“I think there will be an initial lash-out at authorities,” said Mr. Bunker, who has studied Mexican cartels since the 1990s and has written a dozen books on the topic. “But it wouldn’t make sense to attack tourists.”
What about other parts of Mexico?
As is generally true, the security situation in Mexico varies widely. Some states, like Campeche and Yucatán, are currently under a Level 1 advisory of “exercise normal precautions” from the U.S. State Department. Others — including Sinaloa, Zacatecas, Tamaulipas and Michoacán — are under a Level 4 “do not travel” advisory. Most areas popular with tourists, including Mexico City and the states of Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo, are under a Level 2 advisory of “exercise increased caution.”
Travelers planning a trip to Mexico should look closely at their destination’s security situation.
Cancún, the most popular spring break destination, and its surrounding destinations — Cozumel, Tulum, Playa del Carmen — are all located outside the Jalisco cartel’s historic footprint of violence and are on the other side of the country from Puerto Vallarta.
“If it was my family, I sure as heck wouldn’t want them in Puerto Vallarta or Guadalajara in the near term,” Mr. Bunker said. “But I wouldn’t cancel a spring break trip to Cancún.”
Mr. Bunker said he expected this latest spate of unrest “to have died down by spring break,” adding that he would remain wary and vigilant and would advise checking the U.S. State Department advisories before traveling.
Other destinations like Los Cabos, at the southern tip of Baja California Sur, have been unaffected by the recent cartel violence. For Mike Ballard, the director of intelligence at Global Guardian, a travel-risk management company, Cabo San Lucas, a resort city there, would be a place he’d comfortably advise clients to visit now — as long as they monitor the news. “But as we have seen, this can all go sideways quickly,” he added, “so you want to be paying attention to what is going on before departing.”
Mexico City was also largely unaffected this week, according to Mr. Ballard, who said that “most crime groups don’t want to stir things up in Mexico City.” For that reason, his firm is still recommending that people proceed with travel plans to Mexico City, while utilizing secure transportation.
What can travelers do to reduce their risk?
Travelers should keep an eye on the State Department’s travel advisory page for Mexico for the most up-to-date information, which may be changing by the hour. They should also register with the U.S. Department of State’s free Smart Traveler Enrollment Program, known as STEP. If possible, speaking with friends or family members on location at the destination can also give a sense of a location’s specific security situation.
Hotels often face a conflict of interest during situations of heightened risk: They want travelers to keep their reservations, but they also don’t want travelers to show up and experience danger or distress. Visitors should reach out to hotel providers to find out about their safeguards, but it’s also wise to get a second opinion from a more neutral source.
Travelers should also pay special attention to their safety beyond the hotels or resorts where they are staying. Visitors can also minimize outings away from those bases.
Mr. Bunker also recommends that travelers work with their hotels or resorts. “They will have either their own resort transport or their own trusted agents as far as taxis and everything else,” he said. “You don’t want to just say yes, if someone comes up to you and offers you a cab ride.”
Travel insurance can help lessen the financial risk, but be sure to read the fine print. You may need a costly upgrade known as a “Cancel for Any Reason” plan to be covered for a broader range of disruptions.
In the end, if you assess the risk and decide to continue with your trip, try your best to relax and enjoy your vacation. “As long as you do your due diligence, I think you’ll be OK,” Mr. Bunker said.
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