Europe’s New Way of War

Today marks four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2022, no one thought the war would last this long. But Ukraine has defied all odds and denied Russia victory.

For the rest of Europe, there is a lot to learn, especially as the NATO alliance and the unconditional backing of the U.S. military are no longer certain. European defense budgets are rising. Armies are recruiting. More military equipment is being “Made in Europe.”

And there may be a deeper shift taking hold. Over the course of my conversations with security experts in recent weeks, I kept hearing an intriguing phrase being thrown around: “the European way of war.” Today I write about what that might look like.

Europe rethinks war

Could Europe defend itself without the United States?

The conventional wisdom is no. Europe relies on America for nuclear deterrence, air and missile defense, intelligence capabilities and much more. The U.S. has the stealthiest jets! The biggest bunker busters!

All of this is true.

But some are now questioning whether Europe actually needs all of this to have a viable self-defense strategy.

“We don’t need to be better than the U.S., we need to be better than Russia,” said Christian Mölling, founder of the Berlin-based think tank European Defense in a New Age.

That thought could potentially be galvanizing. Russia has about 144 million people and 1.1 million active soldiers to Europe’s 450 million people and 1.5 million active soldiers.

Not having America’s capabilities would certainly mean doing things differently. It might mean accepting more risk for European soldiers. And it would mean a messier leadership structure than Europe’s fighting forces have gotten used to. But it could also mean that Europe moves closer to strategic autonomy and a European-led defense strategy.

This is what the people thinking along these lines are calling “the European way of war.”

The American way of war

One of them is Claudia Major, an expert on trans-Atlantic security. She told me that America’s way of fighting had evolved around specific characteristics — some cultural and some geographic.

The U.S. fights with a uniquely intense focus on air power. Its tolerance for losing soldiers is low. Minimizing casualties has been a precondition to recruit soldiers for the many wars the U.S. has fought in recent decades.

Then there’s geography. America, with oceans on either side, has a military that is designed to project power around the globe.

The U.S.-led NATO alliance meant that European countries were also trained in this way of fighting, Major told me. The way America plans and conducts wars became Europe’s way, too.

There are still many in European defense circles who would prefer to keep fighting the way they’re used to, and focus on acquiring more of the capabilities the U.S. currently provides to NATO.

But those talking about a European way of war say the focus on merely replacing what the U.S. provides can be distracting.

They say the most important aspect of decoupling from the U.S. isn’t buying more fighter jets. It’s making the psychological break required to rethink European security with Europe’s geography, political culture, strategic priorities and resources in mind.

A European way

What would that look like?

For starters, Europe would need to adapt its deterrence plans to the reality of its resources, said Mölling. Right now, he said, deterrence in Europe involves tens of thousands of U.S. troops deployed across the continent.

Deterrence without the U.S. would mean redeploying fewer soldiers in more strategic ways and finding alternatives to U.S. air power, Mölling said. That might mean a greater emphasis on ground-based firepower like cruise missiles.

It might also mean more static defense lines like physical trenches and berms in the Baltic countries, and land mines along stretches of the NATO border.

And in war, it would probably mean greater casualties because without American intelligence and air power, Europe would be slower to identify targets.

Even in peace time, the psychological cost would be high. Land mines in Europe. Militarized borders, East German-style. They could bring home the reality of war in a way that U.S. air bases do not.

The Ukraine factor

The last four years of war in Ukraine have highlighted how valuable U.S. capabilities and resources are to Europe’s defense. But they have also provided some crucial lessons.

Ukraine didn’t get all of the U.S.-made fighter jets and other weapons it asked for. It has compensated with drones and self-propelled howitzers. It has made up for troop shortages with mines, berms and trenches.

Ukraine has also crystallized the main scenario that Europeans must prepare for: defending against aggression from a neighbor, instead of projecting power across the world, Mölling said.

Ukraine, viewed through this lens, is an investment in the future of European defense. It has a battle-hardened military, the continent’s second-largest standing army and its most vibrant defense tech start-up sector.

Its expertise in drone warfare could help Europe in future conflicts. Germany and Ukraine just signed an agreement for Ukrainian veterans to train German soldiers in drone warfare.

The Ukraine war also offers a lesson in the importance of “gray zone” tactics like sabotage and information warfare, which many European countries are woefully unprepared for. (I’ll write more about those scenarios soon.)

Ultimately, the biggest problem with transitioning to a European way of war, of course, is the same as the problem with a European way of anything: When America is engaged, it’s clear who’ll be calling the shots. When America steps back, the question of leadership gets a lot messier.

“If you don’t have the leadership that decides when to use military force,” Major said, “all the weapons in the world won’t save you.”

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