On Sunday, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government recorded a significant success in its fight against organized crime. In an operation led by its armed forces, Mexican authorities killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes — “El Mencho” — the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), the most powerful criminal organization to emerge in Mexico in decades.
Oseguera had become an almost mythical figure for members of his cartel, who often refer to themselves as “Mencho’s men.” The CJNG itself has grown into a terrifying and cruel force in Mexico’s criminal landscape, responsible for systematic extortion, drug trafficking (especially fentanyl) — and spectacular acts of violence.
Oseguera’s death also marks a definitive break with years of permissiveness under the previous administration led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador. López Obrador’s “hugs, not bullets” strategy allowed criminal organizations such as the CJNG to expand their dominance. Oseguera’s killing suggests that the constant pressure exerted by the Trump administration has pushed the Mexican government to change course. Indeed, early reporting suggests U.S. intelligence helped make the operation a success.
Sheinbaum may have embarked on this more aggressive path only reluctantly, but she must now stay the course. It will probably be a complicated and bloody ride.
Oseguera’s death triggered violent convulsions in roughly a dozen Mexican states — about one-third of the country. Guadalajara was among the hardest-hit cities, with armed groups fighting each other, burning vehicles and vandalizing convenience stores. In less than four months, World Cup matches are set to be played there.
And there is no reason to think that the violence will subside.
The decapitation of criminal organizations rarely leads to their destruction. In Mexico, decapitation has led to fragmentation, with splinter factions emerging that are sometimes even more violent and unpredictable than the original structure, turning city streets into battlegrounds to settle disputes. That is precisely what is happening in Sinaloa state, and especially in the capital Culiacán, where the recent capture and extradition of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada has triggered a brutal struggle for control between factions aligned with Zambada’s heirs and those loyal to the sons of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.
Alfonso Alejandre, a Mexican analyst from Guadalajara, told me that even before Oseguera’s death there were already signs of fragmentation within the cartel. Oseguera, he said, “was the one who kept the organization united.” What happens now without that unifying force? During Sunday’s gunfights, Mexico’s armed forces killed other members of the cartel. Whether those were high-ranking associates of the organization could determine the extent of the internal war to come. Mexican journalist Oscar Balderas put it this way: “The CJNG is not a cartel, but a transnational criminal enterprise. And as such, it is designed to survive without its CEO. This is not the end of the CJNG, but the end of the ‘Mencho’ era.”
Although based in Jalisco and Guanajuato, the CJNG operates across nearly the entire country. Eduardo Guerrero, an expert on criminal networks, told me that his main concern is whether “authorities have a plan to contain the upcoming fragmentation. It would be tragic if Guadalajara became a mirror of Culiacán in the next few months.”
On Monday, at a solemn news conference, Defense Secretary Ricardo Trevilla recounted details of the operation and, visibly moved, offered condolences to the families of the fallen Mexican soldiers. Sheinbaum followed with a message of resolve. “There is a government. There are armed forces. There is a security cabinet. There is a lot of coordination,” the president said.
Any cooperation with the U.S., however, went unmentioned.
That’s a mistake. By downplaying or obscuring the extent of bilateral collaboration in the name of rhetorical sovereignty, Sheinbaum forfeited a powerful message: that the Mexican state is not isolated but is operating with the vast intelligence capabilities of its neighbor to the north.
El Mencho is dead. But a new phase of the war against the cartels is just beginning. It will feature American eyes in the sky and Mexican boots on the ground. Many Mexican voters, exhausted by the endless cycles of violence, will probably welcome this development. And, indeed, the cartels should have no illusions about what they’re facing. They should not sleep easy.
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