The Supreme Court’s ruling striking down many of President Trump’s tariffs on Friday immediately cheered consumers, who hoped it would reduce the cost of imported products.
The tariffs, which Mr. Trump enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, had affected a vast swath of goods made in other countries, including furniture, apparel and electronics.
But some economists cautioned that the ruling would probably not lower sticker prices right away, if at all. Businesses that raised prices to offset higher import taxes are likely to be reluctant to lower them as long as tariff rates remain uncertain.
And just as they did with the struck-down tariffs, companies could be tempted to pass on some of any additional cost to consumers.
On Friday, Mr. Trump signed new, across-the-board 10 percent tariffs on U.S. trading partners as part of his effort to keep his trade policy intact.
Many companies managed to shield consumers from hefty price increases last year, in part by stockpiling inventory before many of the steepest tariffs went into effect in August. With their inventories dwindling or depleted, businesses may be less able or willing to eat the cost of a new set of tariffs.
“Any boost to the economy from lowering tariffs in the near term is likely to be partly offset by a prolonged period of uncertainty,” Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note. “And with the administration likely to rebuild tariffs through other, more durable means, the overall tariffs rate may yet end up settling close to current levels.”
Businesses seeking refunds to recoup their tariffs expenses are likely to have to wait awhile to receive them. Even then, whether they return any money to consumers is an open question, but it appears unlikely in many cases.
Some consumer champions already seemed to be anticipating that outcome and were warning major corporations against it.
“Any refunds from the federal government should end up in the pockets of the millions of Americans and small businesses that were illegally cheated out of their hard-earned money by Donald Trump,” Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, said in a statement.
Arin Schultz, the chief growth officer at Naturepedic, an organic mattress and furniture manufacturer, said tariffs had shaken up his business, and “not for the better.”
The company, which makes its mattresses in the United States but imports furniture and materials including textiles from countries like India and Pakistan, absorbed as much of the tariffs as it could but finally raised prices in November.
Mr. Schultz said he had thought the tariffs would be permanent and was surprised by the Supreme Court’s decision.
But he did not view it as a victory. He does not think companies will be able to recoup the costs they paid in tariffs over the past year. Even if tariffs are completely canceled — an unlikely development — the company had already imported the raw materials for its latest batch of products at a higher cost and would not consider decreasing prices until the summer, Mr. Schultz said.
And unless the federal government says it is dropping the issue of tariffs completely, he said, he is preparing to continue to pay higher import duties.
“Right now, in my mind, tariffs are still standing,” he said.
Sydney Ember is a Times business reporter, covering the U.S. economy and the labor market.
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