GOP infighting may pave the way to an inevitable Democratic Party victory at the 2028 elections, a veteran pollster has claimed.
Nate Silver suggested that the party merely needs a reasonable candidate, and they may have their share of choices. In his Substack column, Silver noted Gavin Newsom, who had not yet lost an election, and former Vice President Kamala Harris could be safe options for the Democratic Party at the next presidential election.
This choice is contingent, he says, on the in-fighting which is bound to come from the Republican Party finding a suitable replacement for Donald Trump. The president will leave office in 2029, but finding a potential successor has proven tricky. JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz could all mount their own bids for the GOP leadership.
Silver wrote, “We don’t make endorsements, and in fact, my prediction of what Democrats will do isn’t that correlated with what I think they should do if they want to maximize their chances of reclaiming the White House.
“Don’t get me wrong, I think any basically reasonable Democrat could win, as I discussed in the Times story.” Silver, who spoke with the New York Times earlier this week, suggested the Democratic Party has the advantage of being “out of power” during a difficult time for the US.
He added, “I expect Republicans to have a lot of trouble agreeing on a candidate who is not Donald Trump. They’ve done quite badly in the Trump era in nonpresidential elections.”
Silver went on to explain his thoughts in the Substack piece posted earlier today, adding, “Still, based on his electoral track record, I also don’t think Newsom would be a particularly good nominee as compared to someone like Ruben Gallego, Raphael Warnock, Andy Beshear, Gretchen Whitmer, or Josh Shapiro — and honestly, a lot of others, too.”
Silver has, despite suggesting any reasonable candidate could sweep the elections in 2028, urged caution on backing Newsom. He added, “Isn’t Gavin Newsom a winner? He certainly looks like one — and I’ll grant that his decision to put a partisan redistricting initiative on the ballot last year was a big success.
“Polls tend to show that Democratic voters see Newsom as ‘electable’. Indeed, Newsom has never lost an election, having advanced up the Golden State ladder from the San Francisco Board of Supervisors to Governor of California. But you know who else had never lost an election prior to 2024? Kamala Harris.
Yep, that’s right. Granted, Harris probably would have lost most if not all of the Democratic primaries and caucuses she entered had she remained on the ballot in her 2020 nomination campaign.
“But technically speaking, it’s true: Harris twice won elections for San Francisco District Attorney, twice for Attorney General, once for U.S. Senate, and once for vice president — until she lost every swing state to Trump.”
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