John R. Bolton was ambassador to the United Nations under President George W. Bush and national security adviser under President Donald Trump.
In the Biden administration’s waning months, U.S. officials supported, indeed urged, Britain to cede the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Smack in the middle of the Indian Ocean, the Chagos Archipelago houses the critical Diego Garcia air and naval base, a joint American-British facility.
The exertions of both the Biden administration and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government exemplify international law theology overriding legitimate U.S.-U.K. national security interests. Donald Trump should have halted the negotiations as soon as he assumed office. That he didn’t tells us a lot about his administration’s strategic incoherence.
But he still can do the right thing and kill this ill-conceived deal.
Diego Garcia has played critical roles during several Middle Eastern wars and crises. Its salience continues rising as China seeks expanded influence, even hegemony, in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s efforts to map the Indian Ocean seabed are but one example of the unfolding strategic contest.
The Chagos Islands’ international legal status has long been hotly disputed. Mauritius pushed its sovereignty claims via U.N. General Assembly resolutions and advisory opinions from international courts (whose jurisdiction America does not acknowledge). Given China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative in Africa, and its highly-visible efforts to draw Mauritius closer, mean sovereignty over the Chagos is hardly an abstraction. Moreover, as a party to Africa’s nuclear-weapon-free zone, Mauritius could try to prohibit such weapons at Diego Garcia once it assumes sovereignty.
When Starmer met Trump in Washington on Feb. 27, 2025, no formal U.K.-Mauritius agreement to transfer Chagos sovereignty yet existed. Whether Trump was well-briefed beforehand is unclear, but he was open to Britain ceding sovereignty. “I have a feeling it’s going to work out very well,” he said. “They’re talking about a very long-term, powerful lease, a very strong lease, about 140 years actually. That’s a long time, and I think we’ll be inclined to go along with your country.” When the deal was formalized, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said America “welcomed the historic agreement.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth concurred.
Accepting a British long-term lease for Diego Garcia contrasts starkly with Trump’s attitude toward U.S. bases in Greenland. Even before his second inaugural, he declined to rule out military force to seize the island. One year later, he expressly threatened force so America would own Greenland for psychological reasons, a striking inconsistency not least because NATO ally Denmark exercises sovereignty over Greenland whereas Mauritius will be a dubious partner at best. Britain retaining Chagossian sovereignty was far more prudent but, apparently, not to Trump.
For a while. Washington’s inertia and inattention allowed the transfer of sovereignty deal to proceed dangerously close to consummation, despite consistent opposition from Britain’s Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and others. Then, on Jan. 20, Trump proclaimed it “an act of GREAT STUPIDITY” for “our ‘brilliant’ NATO Ally,” Britain, to cede sovereignty to Mauritius.
In a panic in early February, with his government verging on collapse, Starmer called Trump and persuaded him the deal wasn’t so bad after all, producing a second White House U-turn. Trump’s renewed support came with a proviso: If the lease deal failed or Diego Garcia otherwise became endangered, “I retain the right to Militarily secure and reinforce the American presence in Diego Garcia,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Notably, Trump unequivocally declared the base “of great importance to the National Security of the United States.”
Finally, on Wednesday, Trump pivoted yet again, warning Starmer he is making a “big mistake” with Chagos, characterizing the base as “strategically located” on an “important Island,” and pointing out that it may well be used to launch attacks against Iran in the coming days. “DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!” he concluded. Ironically, this occurred the day after that the State Department formally conveyed to London Trump’s second approval!
Trump can do much more than bluster on social media. A 1966 executive agreement (via an exchange of letters) between Washington and London about basing rights on Diego Garcia hinges on Britain’s assurances that it would retain sovereignty over the Chagos Islands in perpetuity. Thus, if Washington insists on London adhering to this pledge as part of its treaty obligations, it could easily veto any handover to Mauritius. At Davos, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage beseeched Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for Trump do just that.
The split screen contrast of how Trump handled both Chagos and Greenland marks a new low in U.S. strategic thinking. On Diego Garcia, he acceded to a dangerous, badly conceived diplomatic giveaway, threatening future military action, when he could have preserved the status quo simply by exercising a veto. On Greenland, he unnecessarily threatened military force now, gravely weakened NATO and only reluctantly agreed to negotiate with Denmark — a solution available all along.
Given Trump’s flat acknowledgment of Diego Garcia’s national security importance, what excuse is there to agree to Mauritian sovereignty? Is it because, for many in Trump’s orbit, Greenland is closer geographically to America than are the Chagos Islands? If so, this truly reveals the administration’s earthworm-like isolationist national-security vision. Of course, in a White House having difficulty grasping Europe’s strategic significance to U.S. interests, it is no surprise Diego Garcia’s importance didn’t ring any bells.
Satisfactorily resolving our strategic concerns for both the Chagos Islands and Greenland is easy, right in front of us, and undeniably important. All we need is for Trump to get out of his own way.
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