Republican strategists are increasingly worried about the enthusiasm gap that has been driving Democratic wins since the 2024 election.
Democratic candidates have outpaced Kamala Harris’ 2024 performance by double digits in race after race, by an average of 10.5 percentage points in 20 state legislative special elections this year and 13.9 points in the 67 state House and Senate races last year, reported Axios.
“Many Republicans trace their troubles to Trump not being on the ballot this year or in 2028,” Axios reported. “But strategists acknowledge that some of his actions — including the administration’s reluctance to release more of the Epstein files — have turned off parts of his MAGA base, while energizing Democrats and anti-GOP independents.”
“The numbers are startling,” the report added. “In race after race, Democrats are outpacing their 2024 performance by double digits, a clear sign of a yawning enthusiasm gap.”
In the past four weeks, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a plus-17 Trump district in north Texas by 14 points and Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won a plus-13 Trump district in south Louisiana by a staggering 24 points, and while Republican Dillon Travis won a special election in north-central Oklahoma by 28 points, that was 30 points lower than Trump’s 58-point blowout in 2024.
“While it is tempting for many in our party to wish away these results,” a GOP operative told Axios, “the pattern is clear that there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it’s built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base.”
Taylor Rehmet flipped the deep-red north Texas state Senate district Jan. 31 by focusing on affordability, rather than directly attacking President Donald Trump, he told Axios, and he believes he won over a “sizable” number of Trump voters, but some Republicans say the president will be able to turn out his base for Republicans in the midterms.
“Let’s not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake,” said Mason Di Palma, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee. “They are unique, low-turnout contests driven by highly localized factors.”
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