Spoiler alert: No one has the slightest idea who the Democratic candidate for president will be in 2028. Including me.
But that doesn’t mean it’s not a subject being discussed every single day in the nation’s capital and elsewhere among what might be described as political circles. So I thought I would give you a brief summary of some of the buzz, leavened (I hope) by some of what I am actually seeing in the real world.
We still have to make it through all of 2026 to even get to the midterms, and the presidential election is two long years after that. This leads to one of the key points to be made while ‘Beastcapping’ this next election: We have little idea what the central issues or the political theme of the race will be. Yes, clean up on aisle Trump and anger over the past four years will be part of it. Yes, so too will be the fact that American democracy and our economy are both broken, rigged, serving the very rich and leaving the rest of the country to struggle.
But many questions with the capacity to make or break a candidate’s chances remain unresolved—and as events unfold, the dynamics of the election will be altered: Will Trump make a more concerted push toward authoritarianism? Will the “Epstein files” produce new revelations? Will Americans be angered by the corruption and thuggishness of the current government, or will they become numbed to it? Will the 2026 midterms have been fair? Will Democratic majorities in Congress—assuming the election was fair, mind you—see hearings that elevate members to star status? Will national events do the same for some governor or mayor?
And as you know, politics in America is now a form of reality TV: personality-driven, shallow, gossipy, veering from hypercringe to bowel-wrenchingly terrifying. In short, it is mesmerizingly weird as f–k. Like watching a puppy race across a sixteen-lane highway, we can’t turn away. So keep a loose grip on the bandwagon onto which you want to hop—and there’s a lot of bandwagons out there to choose from:
For the purposes of this article, I will stick with the Democrats. We will delve into what’s going on among Republicans in the near future.
The Man Who Will Not Be King
One of those mentioned most frequently as a leading contender has been Gavin Newsom, the outgoing (in every sense of the word) governor of California.
One recent story asserted that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to devote her efforts to promoting Newsom’s candidacy. And you can understand Pelosi’s impulse. Newsom is what the old guard imagines the new guard to be. To them, he looks young and energetic—and by comparison, he is. They are drawn to his good hair, sparkling smile, quotability and name recognition. They see his ability to blend sharp shots at Trump with defenses of billionaires and his hobnobbing with the denizens of MAGA-world as assets. That seems like “centrism” to them; to paraphrase a quote from the recently departed Robert Duvall in Apocalypse Now, they love the smell of centrism in the morning. It smells of victory.
It also ignores the reality that, by 2028, the majority of American voters will have been born after 1990. Millennials and Gen Z will play a big role at the polls, and when I speak to them, the critique of Newsom is clear. They see his podcasting with Steve Bannon and Joe Rogan as opportunistic pandering and his cozying up to the ultrarich as a sign that he is just another pol. While they like some of his social media jabs at Trump, they can’t help but remember that this is a guy who was once married to Kimberly Guilfoyle.
Worse for Newsom is that he is the front-runner in much early betting… which is the absolute kiss of death. Of the last four winning Democrats—Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden—three were not even being discussed seriously three years out from the election and the fourth, Biden, was not given much of a chance.
The Other Governors
The conventional wisdom is that, while D.C. loves to talk up its home crowd, governors make the best presidential candidates. They can position themselves as “outsiders,” comparatively, and they have executive experience.
Leading the list for Democrats—other than Newsom—right now are the following:
JB Pritzker of Illinois
He himself is a billionaire, which could be a double-edged sword, but most Democrats see it as an advantage—he can speak to inequalities in the system and perhaps, in the “only Nixon could go to China” sense, be the one who dismantles some of them.
Like Newsom, he has stood up strong to Trump. He himself is a billionaire, which could be a double-edged sword, but most Democrats see it as an advantage—he can speak to inequalities in the system and perhaps, in the “only Nixon could go to China” sense, be the one who dismantles some of them. He is also notably fitter than he was in the past and is from a blue state in the middle of the country where tough battles need to be won. (Newsom’s being from California is not seen as a plus.) A real contender.
Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan
She was ranked more highly prior to going to the Oval Office and then hiding—on camera!—to pretend she wasn’t there. Since then, however, Whitmer has kept her head down and governed effectively. Her positioning as someone who “gets s–t done,” her plain-spokenness, her sense of humor and the importance of Michigan all work to her favor. A middle-tier prospect to watch.
Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania
He is talented, smart, effective and well-liked in his state. Pennsylvania is important. However, he is also aggressive behind the scenes, a trait that hurt him when he was considered for Vice President in 2024. His decision to deepen the fight with Kamala Harris in his recent book doesn’t help. Further, he has a very traditional view of U.S. support of Israel (he, like Pritzker, is Jewish) and for younger voters, that is increasingly seen as a problem. They want a candidate who will not give a blank check to Israel as Biden did, Democrats have traditionally done and many of the party’s leaders still do. It is a bigger problem than many at the top are willing to acknowledge.
Wes Moore of Maryland
Moore is not well known among voters nationwide, but among insiders he is admired for his talent, brains and directness with Trump. He still has to prove he can command the big stage, but he is a popular governor and would, as an African American with a military background and a moderate record, make an appealing candidate across many constituencies. (A kerfuffle over his military record won’t amount to much, I suspect, in the current era of U.S. politics.) One very smart (and decidedly centrist) D.C. insider with whom I spoke loved the prospect of putting Moore on the ticket with another governor who is likely to get vice presidential consideration given her strong business track record, former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island.
Andy Beshear of Kentucky
Beshear is popular among political types because he is from Kentucky and therefore has that “I know how to speak ‘red state’” aura about him. He is also handsome and likable. Recently, he has been using social media to appear more spontaneous and lovable. The problem is that it doesn’t translate. He is one of those candidates who look good on paper but are a bit stiff and dry for the big stage. Nevertheless, sometimes they make it through. Remember Al Gore?
And there are more Democratic governors out there looming as potential candidates someday. Both Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey are already on this list. They were just elected last November, so perhaps for 2032 or beyond? But who knows, things move fast in American politics. They are leaders of a group of national security Dems who many believe will make good candidates—and they are fast studies. Another on the “to watch” list, and who also took office this year, is Josh Stein of North Carolina. But, frankly, he faces the challenge of splitting the vote of those wanting a Jewish East Coast governor named Josh as the candidate.
The Crowd from Capitol Hill
Capitol Hill is a petri dish in which presidential ambitions are constantly being cultivated. It is hard to check unbridled ambition and folks on the Hill do get the kind of national exposure that puts them in the conversation. Some of those getting buzz right now are…
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York
Like Newsom, AOC went to the Munich Security Conference to send the message that she has foreign policy chops. She packed the rooms in which she appeared. While the right (and the New York Times) chose to focus on some of her more awkward moments, her argument that the world is under threat from a network of autocrats and that more attention needs to be paid to the concerns of the working class was met with appreciation from those I spoke with who were there. (Yes, Marco Rubio spoke more smoothly. But he also was peddling a candy-coated version of Trump and JD Vance’s condescending white Christian nationalism that has left allies worrying more about the future.)
And make no mistake, she was also seen as an important rising star on the international stage. Very few politicians anywhere are known by their initials. If she chooses to run, she will be the standard-bearer for both the party’s progressive wing and the emerging under-40 majority. The only question is whether she will want to trade her growing clout in Congress for the risks of a presidential campaign. In any case, more than any individual, she looks like the future of American politics. In my book, that’s a good thing.
Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona
Trump and Pete Hegseth made Kelly a target of their ire over his participation in a message sent by ex-national security veterans urging military officers of their duty not to follow illegal orders. In so doing, they elevated his stature and gave him a chance, which he has seized, to become a face of the opposition. In so doing, he has revealed both his strengths (he’s a genuine American hero, astronaut and naval aviator married to another profile in courage, former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords) and his weaknesses (he’s pretty dry, which is to say comes across a little boring). Nonetheless, don’t underestimate him as a contender.
Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut.
Murphy is a foreign policy expert and is making a big push to be in the public eye as a big critic of Trump. He frames issues with greater acuity than his peers, and he’s very smart. Still, Connecticut is not the kind of base that brings with it much to the national conversation, and Murphy (like Newsom) is seen by many Dems as wanting it way too much.
Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan
Slotkin is a prime example of the national security Democrats mentioned earlier, a former CIA officer turned Congresswoman and now Senator. She grew up on a farm and is very good on television. She is sometimes seen as trying to triangulate her answers a bit too much, but that was a critique leveled at the last three Democratic nominees, too. She is a mid-tier prospect at the moment, but definitely one to watch. A rising star.
Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey
Booker is another candidate who is great on paper and appealing in person, but who has never been able to catch fire on the national campaign trail. Yes, he garnered attention for his 24-hour filibuster in the spring of last year critiquing the Trump administration. The only question is whether he can find another moment on which he can build and start performing to the level many have expected of him.
Other Congression al candidates that get mentioned and could certainly catch fire including Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas, currently a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Senate in that state and a media star who is always quick with a soundbite, Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who is a Constitutional expert and one of Trump’s most effective critics and Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia who, currently running for reelection, is young, smart and recently really nailed the zeitgeist when he dubbed those who have gamed the system in the US as “the Epstein class.”
The Mayors
Like governors, because mayors actually run things and get them done, they have traits one might look for in a president. Furthermore, there are a couple of former mayors who figure prominently in the early Democratic field.
Pete Buttigieg
The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, a former Democratic presidential candidate and the former Secretary of Transportation under Joe Biden, is possibly the most gifted natural communicator on this list. He is experienced. He has learned the lessons of the campaign trail. He is a veteran. He is midwestern. He is a father. And he is a gay man who has been a champion of marginalized groups throughout his career. He has faltered before, but many feel that if he ever has a moment, 2028 may be it. He is certainly among the top-tier candidates.
Rahm Emanuel
Emanuel has one of the most remarkable resumes in American politics. He is a former White House chief of staff, a former House majority whip, a former mayor of Chicago and a former U.S. Ambassador to Japan. He is plain-spoken (sometimes to a fault) and canny. However, what he gains in his undeniable willingness to fight for what he believes, he may lose in being seen as a bit of an old-school centrist. He will make an impression in debates and shape the tenor of the race more broadly, but would his campaign really be a play to be VP or in the Cabinet? Many in D.C. think so.
Mayor Michelle Wu of Boston
As far as I know, she is not running. No one is mentioning her. But she is at the forefront of a group of American mayors who are attracting attention for their creative leadership and mastery of new media. Would she or could she be a VP candidate? Yes. Is this the kind of outlier to keep an eye on? Also yes.
And an Ex-Vice President
Should she desire to run, Kamala Harris will be a force to be reckoned with. In a short campaign, she very nearly won the presidency and built a national base of support—she can certainly raise money as well or better than anyone else on this list. Trump has worked hard to persuade people he beat her more soundly than he did, and to minimize her strengths, which are more considerable than many appreciate.
Furthermore, this time around, she has an ace in the hole: She can (and must) distance herself from Joe Biden. Underestimate Harris at your peril. If she wants it and is willing to unveil a new, bolder, identity as a candidate—in other words, to be herself—she will be a formidable contender.
P.S. Who It Definitely Will Not Be
This is an incomplete list. If your favorite is not here, include them in the comments. Make the case. All views—well, almost all views—are worth hearing at this stage of the game.
That said, please save yourself some trouble by ignoring those names that are popular in cocktail party conversations but have zero chance. These include celebrity candidates like Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey, the sports gadfly Stephen A. Smith or the late-night host Stephen Colbert. When you think of the size of the field and the stakes, this is no place for amateurs or unproven political figures. New voices, yes? Cranky sportscasters with an absurdly over-inflated sense of their own importance or competence to do the job, no.
The post Opinion: The Candidates Warming Up for the 2028 Democratic Primaries—and Who’s Already Got a Head Start appeared first on The Daily Beast.
