Ukrainian, Russian and American officials were set to reconvene on Wednesday for a second day of trilateral talks, the latest in a string of negotiations aimed at securing a peace that has proved elusive.
After the first day of discussions, on Tuesday in Geneva, Switzerland, negotiators offered no public sign of progress. The talks were expected to focus on the fate of Ukrainian-held territory in the east that Moscow wants under its control as the price for ending the war — a demand that Kyiv has said is a nonstarter.
It is one of two main obstacles to a peace deal, along with the question of postwar Western security guarantees for Ukraine to deter any future Russian invasion.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has signaled openness to compromising on the territorial issue, suggesting a demilitarized zone in Donetsk, where both Ukrainian and Russian troops would pull back from an equal portion of territory. But he has also made clear that any territorial compromise would come only after Ukraine secures firm security guarantees from its Western allies, above all the United States.
That is why the question of territory and security guarantees are tightly interconnected, analysts say. Whichever is resolved first could determine which of the warring sides gains the upper hand in the negotiations, they add.
“The sequencing matters a lot,” said Harry Nedelcu, a senior director at Rasmussen Global, a research organization.
“The U.S. wants Ukraine to make territorial concessions first, and only then would Washington give Kyiv security guarantees,” Mr. Nedelcu said. “This risks to put Kyiv in a trap. Russia would use the pause to launch another attack.”
That concern is particularly acute for the portion of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. The area is heavily fortified, so surrendering it, or even withdrawing from it as part of a demilitarized zone, could give Russia a strategic foothold to resume attacks.
“But if you have security guarantees first,” Mr. Nedelcu added, “it gives Ukrainians bargaining power at the negotiating table and assures Kyiv of international protection to deter another invasion.”
In that case, Kyiv could negotiate from a position of confidence, knowing its postwar security would be protected. Strong guarantees might even persuade Ukrainians to accept territorial concessions, an idea that is beginning to gain traction among the local public.
Mr. Zelensky has said the United States and Ukraine have agreed on postwar security guarantees, though details have not been disclosed. European diplomats in Kyiv remain skeptical that the guarantees are fully locked in. That has raised concerns that the talks in Switzerland, by focusing on territory while security commitments are not yet in place, may be premature.
Mr. Zelensky hinted at this concern in a social media post this week.
“Our American friends, they are preparing security guarantees. But they said — first this swap of territories, or something like that, and then security guarantees,” he wrote on X. “I think — first, security guarantees. Second, we will not give up our territories because we are ready for compromise. What kind of compromise are we ready for? Not for the compromise that gives Russia the opportunity to recover quickly and come again and occupy us.”
Constant Méheut reports on the war in Ukraine, including battlefield developments, attacks on civilian centers and how the war is affecting its people.
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