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Americans think World War III is likely within next 5 years, new poll shows

February 14, 2026
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Americans think World War III is likely within next 5 years, new poll shows

It’s the end of the world — as we know it.

A plurality of Americans believe we are headed toward World War III, a shocking new poll found.

Nearly half of people surveyed in the US — 46% — think a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” by 2031 — versus 31% who don’t believe the fears over armed conflict are real, according to the Politico Europe polling.

The number in the US who foresee global war in the short-term is up 8% — from the 38% polled in March 2025 when Politico last conducted the survey.

war
More people think the world is headed for a new global conflict, a Politico poll found. dpa/picture alliance via Getty Images

Across five Western countries — US, Canada, UK, France and Germany — only Germans didn’t sweat the likelihood of imminent war. Just 25% of Germans were building bomb shelters, compared to the 40% who thought World War III was unlikely over the next five years.

In the US, Canada, United Kingdom and France, the number of people predicting Armaggedon spiked since March.

The sharpest jump was in the UK, where 43% believe a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” to break out — up from 30% in March.

Illustration showing the percentage of people in the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany who believe a world war is likely or unlikely, with projections for 2025 and 2026.
Only Germans didn’t on balance think a world war in the next five years was more likely than not. POLITICO

People in the US were most likely to believe their own country will be at war within the next five years, the poll also found — as hostilities with Iran over its nuclear program continue to raise tensions in the Middle East.

Canada respondents shockingly said it was the US that would trigger a war with the Great White North as the two North American neighbors have tussled over everything from trade to tarriffs.

Meanwhile, Europe saw Russia as its biggest threat in a global war, as Russian strongman Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — and his European ambitions — nears its four-year anniversary.

Politico surveyed more than 2,000 people in each country between Feb. 6 and 9.

The post Americans think World War III is likely within next 5 years, new poll shows appeared first on New York Post.

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