Making a striking foray into the South Caucasus, a region Russia has long viewed as in its sphere of control, Vice President JD Vance this week offered Armenia and Azerbaijan a slew of trade and security deals that could loosen dependence on Moscow and shrink the sway of neighboring Iran.
During a two-day swing through Yerevan and Baku — capitals no sitting U.S. president or vice president had visited — Vance trumpeted plans for a new transit corridor that would transform a derelict stretch of Soviet-era railway into the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — a 26-mile trade link through Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and to Turkey while bypassing Russia and Iran.
The project was at the heart of a Washington-brokered peace framework signed by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House in August, which President Donald Trump billed as an end to an “unendable war” between the two countries, which had fought for decades over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
While Trump has hailed the agreement as proof of his peacemaking acumen, the fighting effectively ended in 2023 with decisive military action by Azerbaijan and a surrender by Armenia. What the framework illustrates well is Trump’s transactional view of diplomacy, and how in his embrace of 19th-century style great power politics, he is willing to wield not only military might but also economic muscle to elbow out rivals and claim the spoils of conflicts for America.
Mahammad Mammadov, an analyst with the Topchubashov Center, a Baku-based think tank, said that Vance’s trip may have undermined hopes in Moscow that Trump’s military action in Venezuela meant he would respect Yalta-style spheres of influence and concede Russia’s dominance in its own backyard.
“Vance’s high-profile visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan cut against this logic, underscoring … brewing great power competition over the region’s connectivity and strategic resources,” Mammadov said.
Joshua Kucera, a senior analyst with International Crisis Group, said that Trump was probably motivated by claiming peacemaking laurels rather than sidelining Russia.
“This was low-hanging peacemaking fruit, really kind of an ideal scenario for Trump’s efforts to win the Nobel Peace Prize, and all of the geopolitical effects are secondary priorities,” Kucera said. “Russia and Iran have both expressed concern about TRIPP but I think in both capitals they also realize that their capacity to oppose it, even if they wanted to, is limited.”
Still, the political and economic ramifications are inescapable.
Just as Trump pushed for a deal on minerals and other economic agreements in Ukraine, the TRIPP project puts the United States at the center of the new trade route, which will extend east beyond Azerbaijan to Central Asia. It is to be built and operated by a U.S.-controlled company. Trump’s plan also supersedes a 2020 ceasefire agreement brokered by Moscow that had called for Russia to oversee a reopened transport corridor.
The increased U.S. role in the region could also further contain Iran at a moment of simmering tensions and negotiations with Tehran over the future of its nuclear program.
Moscow tracked Vance’s trip but could do little more than watch. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grinding war in Ukraine has sapped much of the political and financial resources needed to maintain dominance over the former Soviet bloc. Regional leaders are forging other alliances.
Russia tried to get in on the TRIPP deal late last year, citing its role in managing Armenia’s rail network via a subsidiary of Russian Railways. But Armenia shut the door on Moscow’s participation saying that while it wasn’t seeking to exclude Russia, which can also benefit from reopening long-blocked routes, the deal with the U.S. did not envision additional stakeholders.
“It’s not hard to guess the emotions Washington’s activity in the South Caucasus evokes in many in Moscow. There’s disappointment, frustration, and a sense of helplessness,” Maxim Yusin, a Russian journalist, wrote in an op-ed Tuesday in the business daily Kommersant. “It’s in this region, and in its relations with Yerevan and Baku, that Russia’s position has noticeably weakened in recent years. The main reason is obvious: Excessive preoccupation with the Ukrainian conflict is tying its hands in all other areas.”
Largely because of the long war over Nagorno-Karabakh, no sitting U.S. president or vice president had visited Armenia or Azerbaijan before Vance’s visit this week.
Arriving first in Yerevan on Monday, Vance signed economic and strategic agreements with Pashinyan including a deal that would allow the U.S. to license nuclear technology and equipment to Armenia, which has long been dependent on Russia and Iran for energy.
The country is now mulling proposals from U.S., Russian, Chinese, French and South Korean companies to construct a new atomic reactor in place of its sole Russian-built nuclear power plant. The U.S. deal envisions up to $5 billion in initial exports to Armenia, plus $4 billion more in fuel and maintenance contracts.
“This agreement will open a new chapter in the deepening energy partnership between Armenia and the United States,” Pashinyan said at a joint news conference with Vance.
In Azerbaijan the next day, Vance signed a strategic partnership with Aliyev, pledging an undisclosed number of ships to help protect its territorial waters. Aliyev said that the two countries were entering “an entirely new phase” in cooperation on defense sales and artificial intelligence.
Partnerships with Washington would allow Azerbaijan, which has close strategic ties with Israel, to position itself as a Western-friendly ally wedged between Russia and Iran.
Despite the historic nature of Vance’s visit, it quickly became ensnared in the difficult, bloody history of the region, which has long inflamed emotions.
In a post on X, Vance’s account showed him acknowledging the 1915 Armenian genocide at a wreath-laying ceremony in Yerevan, but the post was then deleted, upsetting the Armenian diaspora in the U.S.
The post, however, was certain to anger Turkey, a NATO ally of the U.S. and Azerbaijan’s most important military partner. Turkey does not recognize the mass killings of Armenians during World War I as genocide — which has long fueled resentment between the two neighboring nations. The land border between Armenia and Turkey has been closed since 1993.
Trump’s zeal for commercial deals, especially on minerals, has renewed American interest in Central Asia, another area Russia has long regarded as its zone of influence and where China is a main competitor. In November, Trump hosted the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Washington and unveiled a series of deals.
Vance’s trip this week underscored a major realignment of the South Caucasus.
Georgia, once among the most Western-leaning post-Soviet states and where a major avenue in Tbilisi, the capital, is named after President George W. Bush, has drifted back toward Moscow — all but ending its bid to join the European Union.
Meanwhile, Russia’s standing with Azerbaijan and Armenia has been significantly undercut, with this shift being especially pronounced in the aftermath of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. Russia failed to uphold the peace agreement it brokered in 2020, and in 2023 a lightning offensive by Azerbaijan reclaimed the region. More than 100,000 ethnic Armenian residents fled, abandoning homes they never imagined leaving.
Armenia, which had long relied on Russia for security, felt abandoned and has distanced itself from Moscow.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has used its oil wealth and Russia’s distraction in Ukraine to challenge Moscow’s dominance and deepen an alliance with Turkey, which has provided steady diplomatic support, military training and other security cooperation. Azerbaijan has also routed large oil and gas pipelines through Turkey, gradually reducing economic dependence on Moscow.
Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia suffered a sharp setback in December 2024, when Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. The plane had been diverted from Grozny, the capital of Russia’s Chechnya republic, as Russian air defenses were shooting down a nearby drone and impacted the aircraft.
Aliyev demanded that Russia admit responsibility and pay compensation to the state and families of the crash victims. Putin apologized for the “tragic incident” in Russian airspace, but neither he nor his government accepted responsibility for downing the plane, further aggravating Baku.
It took Putin nearly a year, until October 2025, to extend another apology to Aliyev and offer to compensate victims’ families and hold responsible officials accountable. The relationship, however, remains rocky.
While Azerbaijan has been able to diversify some of its economic partnerships, Russia still supplies most of Armenia’s energy and remains its top export partner, leaving Yerevan heavily dependent on Moscow.
Once Armenia surrendered in the fight over Karabakh, attention quickly turned to a strategic strip of land in Armenia’s Syunik province, which Azerbaijan calls the Zanzegur corridor — a broken link in a longer, potentially highly lucrative east-west route called the “Middle Corridor” that could connect China and Central Asian countries to Turkey via Azerbaijan.
This is where the TRIPP corridor, if realized, could reshape trade flows by linking Asia more directly with European markets while avoiding routes through Russia and Iran, potentially opening new channels for resources to reach Western buyers.
“However,” Mammadov said, “that will hinge on the depth and durability of American financial and geopolitical commitment to regions where China and Russia remain the dominant power brokers.”
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