CNN data guru Harry Enten has warned that one of Donald Trump’s most critical voting blocs—Americans without a college degree—is rapidly slipping away, marking a dramatic reversal from the coalition that powered Trump’s past electoral success.
“Trump’s base with non-college voters is absolutely collapsing,” Enten said. “He’s underwater by 9 points. That’s a 23-point switcheroo.”
Enten emphasized the political significance of the shift, noting that Trump has long built his electoral identity around dominating non-college voters.
“If you know anything about Donald Trump, you know that he billed his two presidential victories on winning voters without a college degree,” Enten said. “Well, Donald Trump’s base with non-college voters is absolutely collapsing.”
According to CNN, the Pew Research Center, and Enten’s polling aggregate, Trump won non-college voters by 14 points in 2024. Today, his approval rating among that same group stands at -9 points. “He is absolutely collapsing with a group of voters that helped put him into the White House,” Enten said.
The erosion extends beyond Trump himself and into broader Republican electoral prospects. In the 2024 congressional elections, Republicans won non-college voters by 13 points. Looking ahead to 2026, that advantage has narrowed sharply to just 4 points, based on CNN polling and Enten’s aggregate.
“A four-point lead among non-college voters is not anywhere close to being good enough,” Enten warned, pointing out that Democrats are “dominating among voters with a college degree, up by 20 points.”
Enten also connected the political shift to economic realities that clash with Trump’s messaging.
Trump repeatedly vowed to revive U.S. manufacturing by using tariffs and stopping jobs from moving overseas, a message that helped draw working-class voters to him in 2024. But the data tells a different story: as of December 2025, manufacturing employment is down by 65,000 jobs compared with January 2025.
“What we’re dealing with is a Donald Trump message that’s not actually meeting the reality,” Enten said. “And that is why non-college voters have been going away from the president of the United States.”
The findings come as polling shows voters souring on Trump’s handling of the economy. Speaking on CNN News Central Friday, Enten said a stark 55 percent of Americans believe the economy has worsened under Trump, while 54 percent say his top priority should be lowering prices.
By contrast, far fewer voters want the administration focused elsewhere: just 22 percent say “immigration” should be Trump’s main priority, and only 10 percent point to “crime.” Those numbers undercut an administration that spent much of January emphasizing immigration and crime during a high-profile push in Minnesota.
The disconnect was reinforced by a nationwide survey from Talker Research for Current.com, which found that 90 percent of Americans believe the country is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis. Even so, Trump said Sunday that he was “very proud” of the U.S. economy.
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