CNN data analyst Harry Enten revealed that Donald Trump’s second term is already backfiring in his backyard.
The data guru revealed on Wednesday’s CNN News Central that Trump 2.0 has already wiped out the gains in the president’s home state of New York—and warned that the party is heading toward an even uglier showing in the November midterms.
“Donald Trump made huge gains in 2024 versus 2020 in New York. But now we‘re looking at a huge Democratic rebound,” said Enten.
He then revealed that while Kamala Harris won New York by +13 points in 2024—a relatively low margin of victory for the usually deep blue state—New York Democrats in 2026 congressional races are polling at an average of +27 points.
“Look at that wide, huge advantage! That is doubling the margin that Kamala Harris had back in 2024,” Enten exclaimed.
New York swung to Donald Trump more than any state in the nation in 2024, even as New York Democrats picked up three seats in the 2024 House races. The massive swing had some Republicans dreaming of a purple New York, but Enten predicted that New York will bounce back to solid blue—a warning sign for a state GOP that has already lost a rising star in Elise Stefanik.
“There are a lot of Republican representatives in New York,” he continued. “You know, you talk about Mike Lawler up in the Hudson Valley, right? When you see numbers like this, you have to be really worried if you‘re Mike Lawler, because we‘re talking about a huge Democratic rebound in New York.”
GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents parts of Westchester and Duchess counties, won a tightly contested House race against Mondaire Jones in 2024. Though Democrats have yet to elect Lawler’s 2026 challenger, the prominent election forecaster Cook Political Report moved Lawler’s district, NY-17, from “Lean R” to “Toss Up.”
Enten saw similar leftward shifts in other hugely populous states, which he believes will buoy Democrats’ chances at crushing the GOP in the midterms.
He revealed that Democrats in California House races are polling at +28, an eight-point improvement from Harris’ 2024 margin. Even more shocking, Democrats in Texas have shaved Trump’s +14 point 2024 margin in the Lone Star State down to +2.
The grim forecasts come as Republicans are reeling from a shock upset in last week’s Texas state Senate special election, where Democrat Taylor Rehmet crushed Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a district that Trump won by 17 points.
To Enten, the results of that election aren’t so shocking when considering the massive leftward shift happening in Texas.
“That was a big influence, in terms of what happened in TX-9,” he said. “Yeah, they got a good candidate, but it was also that the environment has shifted so much to the left.”
Enten concluded by noting that the three states’ major leftward shifts are part of why Democrats are favored to dominate in the midterms.
“You put this together with this, together with this, and all of a sudden you can see how Democrats can really wring out a lot of seats from the big states,” he said. “The blue ones in California and New York, and of course, the red one, historically, in the state of Texas.”
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