Joe Cunningham is a senior editor at RedState.com and host of the Joe Cunningham Show in Lafayette, Louisiana.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) has a problem. In 2021, fresh off a reelection victory where he ran as a MAGA Republican, Cassidy voted to convict Donald Trump in the post-Jan. 6 impeachment trial. Now president once again, Trump has shown that both his memory and his ability to hold a grudge are as strong as ever.
Though Cassidy had already had a target on his back for his 2021 impeachment vote, he hasn’t helped himself regain ground with the MAGA base he alienated, most recently by questioning the actions of federal agents in Minneapolis in the wake of Alex Pretti’s death.
Cassidy isn’t the only Republican who has questioned the administration’s deportation tactics, but he is the only one Trump has gone out of his way to target. On Jan. 17, the president endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Louisiana) for Cassidy’s seat, even though she had not yet announced a campaign.
She joined the race three days later.
It was a move a long time in the making. The New York Times reported last month that conversations between Letlow and Trump began last March, but Letlow wouldn’t publicly commit without the president’s blessing.
Letlow’s entrance into the race fundamentally changes the way Cassidy will have to sell himself to voters, particularly the pro-Trump voters in the state who don’t trust him. He had already drawn several Republican opponents and was likely to be forced into a runoff, with a significant portion of Louisiana Republicans opposed to him.
Last week, Cassidy dropped his first TV ad of the campaign. He did not tout his close ties to the Trump administration. He did not remind voters that he was the critical vote to get his Health Secretary pick, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., to the Senate floor for confirmation. He did not try to convince voters that he was the most conservative person in the race. Instead, he chose for his reintroduction ad to Louisiana voters to focus on fentanyl.
The 30-second ad, which is shared on his social media pages, features Cassidy discussing how he knows “firsthand how deadly fentanyl is” and then goes on to promote his Halt Fentanyl Act, noting that Trump called it the “most important legislation he would sign this year.”
Nationally, voters are mostly concerned about issues such as the economy, inflation, immigration and crime (which to voters may include fentanyl). But this election cycle in Louisiana, there are two things matter to voters: representing their values — including alignment with Trump — and cost of living.
By publicly touting his legislative wins under Trump, as well as being the deciding vote for Kennedy, Cassidy sought to align himself with the president. The problem for him now is that Trump has publicly backed Letlow.
Fentanyl, meanwhile, has affected a lot of folks in our state, but higher costs affect more people and remains top of mind. Louisiana’s economy lags behind the rest of the nation, and the state has an out-migration problem as folks look for a better cost of living. The Republican Party has made affordability a key issue in 2026. Why hasn’t he started there, especially given his ideas on health care reform?
Still, the path for Letlow is not easy. Any speculation that she will end Cassidy’s time in Washington need to realize that, as a candidate, she has never faced a competitive race. She won her husband’s congressional seat after he died and hasn’t faced a serious challenger. She has a lot of work to do to build her name ID across the state. Trump’s endorsement of her certainly hurts Cassidy, but it didn’t necessarily open a clear path for her.
Letlow has several things going for her. She understands the needs of the farmers of rural Louisiana. She pushed the Parents Bill of Rights Act in Congress, which cleared the House but didn’t get through the Senate, and has worked on bills tied specifically to the agriculture sector of Louisiana. She also sits on the powerful House Appropriations and Steering Committees.
A recent poll shows that the Trump endorsement is influencing the race. When voters are told that the president endorsed Letlow, she leads Cassidy in a head-to-head race 57to 22. In a crowded field, she leads with 27 percent to Cassidy’s 21 percent.
She will also have access to money from Trump supporters and allies that might have otherwise stayed out of this race until the party runoff. Make America Healthy Again PAC, a Trump-allied group that supports Kennedy is set to help bankroll her campaign. Other Trump allies will likely do the same.
Keep in mind, however, that there are three other candidates in the race to watch out for.
A November poll of the race (before Letlow’s entrance) showed Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming in second place behind Cassidy. St. Tammany Parish council member Kathy Seiden, who announced her campaign in October, had more than $1 million cash on hand.
The Louisiana senate race is no clearer now than it was before Trump endorsed Letlow. But Cassidy’s path to reelection is in doubt as he faces the toughest reelection bid of any Republican, and it isn’t because the Democrats are threatening his job. He’s in trouble because his own party has rejected him
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