A major winter storm is expected to bring heavy snow, powerful winds, large waves and coastal flooding to parts of the East Coast this weekend.
While the storm’s effects will most likely be felt from the Mid-Atlantic into New England, forecasters said they could be especially unusual and potentially historic for areas of the Carolinas, where more than a foot of snow is possible.
Here are the key things to know:
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Timing: The storm is expected to form on Saturday off the Carolina coast and then move into the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday into early Monday. Some snow could begin earlier, late Thursday and into Friday, across parts of the southern Appalachians and South Carolina.
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How much snow will fall?: Forecasters are increasingly confident that heavy snow will fall across much of the Southern Appalachians, Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic, with around a foot possible in some areas. The forecast for totals farther north are less certain, though there is more confidence that areas east of Boston could also see around a foot. In New York City, forecasters said there was a possibility of up to two inches, but also a chance of no snow at all.
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It will not warm up: Cold air is expected to persist across much of eastern half of the United States through next week. Some places as far south as Florida could see their coldest temperatures in years.
Heavy snow in the Mid-Atlantic
Brian Hurley, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, said the highest snowfall amounts were expected across the Carolinas, particularly eastern North Carolina, as well as southeastern Virginia.
“For example in Elizabeth City, N.C. — a nice little town — the forecast is for 12.3 inches right now,” he said. That would rank among the five highest depths recorded there, he added.
Forecasters said snow was expected to fall across North Carolina on Saturday into Sunday, with snowfall continuing along the Carolina coast Sunday morning. Mr. Hurley said much of the state could receive six to 10 inches, including the Raleigh area and regions west toward Winston-Salem and Greensboro. Parts of southeastern Virginia, including Newport News and Wakefield, also could see up to 10 inches.
In the Northeast, snow is more likely near the coast
Farther north, as the storm moves toward New England late Saturday night through early Monday morning, snowfall amounts become more uncertain, Mr. Hurley said, except in southern New England.
“I think the effects are going to be more pronounced as you get toward the east of Boston,” he said, “especially in Cape Cod, as well as Nantucket, because it’s a coastal storm and those areas stick out farther” into the ocean.
Mr. Hurley said Boston could receive four to six inches of snow Sunday through early Monday, and areas of Cape Cod may receive between 12 and 15 inches. Elsewhere, Ocean City, Md., is forecast to receive around 10 inches or more, and Cape May in southern New Jersey could see six to eight inches.
Inland areas are expected to see much lighter snowfall.
“We’re not looking at more than a dusting in Washington, D.C., though there is a chance of one to two inches south and east of Washington, D.C.,” Mr. Hurley said. He added that Baltimore could receive less than an inch, with around one to two inches expected for Philadelphia and New York City.
Strong winds could make near-blizzard conditions
The storm is also expected to rapidly intensify, with some meteorologists noting it could become a “bomb cyclone” — a system in which the central pressure drops by at least 24 millibars within 24 hours.
Mr. Hurley said the rapid intensification was likely to produce powerful onshore winds, especially along the Mid-Atlantic coast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward. With the heavy snow, these winds could sharply reduce visibility and create near-blizzard conditions, forecasters said, especially across the northeast of North Carolina and Southeast Virginia. The conditions “may make travel extremely treacherous,” forecasters said.
In addition, wind gusts approaching the strength of a hurricane could coincide with high tides, causing moderate to significant coastal flooding and large waves. Mr. Hurley said that the storm’s relatively fast movement, however, might limit the number of high tides cycles it coincides with.
It still will be very cold
Beyond the storm itself, meteorologists and local officials are also concerned about dangerously cold conditions, which they said could become the longest stretch of extreme cold in several decades for parts of the East and Southeast.
Arctic air has already spread across much of the central and Eastern United States, sending temperatures plunging as much as 30 degrees below average earlier in the week.
Forecasters said another surge of Arctic air was expected to push southward across the Northern Plains on Thursday night, spreading into the Midwest and plunging as far south as the Gulf Coast by Friday night. Subzero wind chills — a measure of how cold the air feels on exposed skin from both low temperatures and wind — were forecast for parts of the South.
Forecasters had particular concerns for areas along the Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula, where long-duration hard freezes are expected, especially on Saturday and Sunday nights.
As the storm moves away from the Northeast on Monday, Mr. Hurley said conditions should become calmer early in the week, though the cold will linger.
“I think there will be some benign weather behind it, so it will be drier,” he said. “But it continues cold along the East Coast, especially for the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.”
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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