CNN data analyst Harry Enten revealed that he was shocked by just how badly Melania Trump’s much-hyped documentary is predicted to bomb.
The 37-year-old data guru said that Melania—which Amazon invested $75 million in—was projected to earn as little as $1 million on its opening weekend.
“For this giant investment, and this is getting a very wide release, not so hot to trot,” he told colleague John Berman on Thursday’s CNN News Central.
Enten compared Melania’s projected opening weekend numbers to those of Farenheit 9/11, Michael Moore’s 2004 documentary on George W. Bush and the Iraq war. According to Enten, Farenheit 9/11 took in an inflation-adjusted $41 million on its opening weekend.
Moore’s documentary cost $6 million to make in 2004, which would be around $10 million today.
“You don‘t have to be a mathematical genius to know that this number, $41 million, is significantly higher than the $1 million to $5 million forecast [for the Melania movie],” Enten said.
Melania, directed by Rush Hour director and accused sex offender Brett Ratner, has gotten an all-out marketing push from the Trump orbit.
President Donald Trump, 79, used his Truth Social account to call his 55-year-old wife’s documentary a “MUST WATCH” and claimed that theaters were “selling out fast!” despite evidence to the contrary.
Melania rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, where a disinterested crowd had to be encouraged to clap more by NYSE president Lynn Martin.
Theaters are also selling a Melania-themed novelty popcorn bucket.
The media blitz has done little to boost the public’s interest in seeing Melania. Enten suggested that despite the hype from Trumpland, there’s a simple reason why the movie isn’t expected to succeed.
“The bottom line is this: at this point, the belief is, part of the reason why the film is not going to do all that well is because there‘s a belief that the film is not all that good,” said Enten.
Though Melania opens in theaters Friday, it hasn’t been screened for critics—historically a sign that the studio lacks faith in the movie.
It’s been review-bombed by Letterboxd users who haven’t seen it. Many of the film’s crew members have requested that their names be removed from the credits, and several are hoping the movie flops.
Enten looked at the prediction market odds for the movie and found that 73 percent of Kalshi users believed it would score less than 20% on the review-aggregate site Rotten Tomatoes. He did the same on Tuesday and found that the number then was 63 percent.
Enten and Berman concluded their segment by looking at where Melania Trump ranks historically among first ladies. There, Enten revealed that Melania may have more to worry about than the performance of her documentary.
“Historical critics don‘t really like Melania Trump either,” said Enten. “I mean, just take a look. Historians’ First Lady rankings, the bottom three. Dead last? Melania Trump.”
“When you‘re next to Jane Pierce and Margaret Taylor, those are not particularly good,” he added.
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