The Amazon-sponsored “Melania” documentary appears on track to land with a thud, CNN data analyst Harry Enten told anchor Erin Burnett on Tuesday.
Already, reports indicate that theaters are dealing with massive amounts of unsold seats, and even some of the film crew who worked on the movie are hoping for it to tank.
As evidence for the impending failure, Enten pointed to early data from Kalshi, a gambling website with which CNN has a partnership deal.
“Tonight, early ticket sales for the new documentary ‘Melania’ not pointing to a blockbuster at this time,” said Burnett, bringing on Enten. “The president, though, says tickets are selling fast … so, Harry, will the president be right?”
“I don’t think the president is going to be right,” said Enten. “And you know what we’re expecting right now in terms of how the movie is going to be received, just take a look at the projections for the Rotten Tomatoes for ‘Melania’, the chance of the score, in fact, being below 20 percent. That’s not good, Erin. That’s not good. Being below 20 percent a majority chance, according to the prediction market odds.”
“And why is it, why do they feel that the odds might not be so hot to trot?” he continued. “Well, it comes back to the fact that’s the same reason that we don’t think that it’s going to necessarily be selling out a whole heck of a lot of tickets. Why? Because what’s the projection for opening weekend for Melania? It’s just $1-5 million, which is again, not so great. That’s a forecast. Take a look at ‘Fahrenheit 9/11,’ the top documentary of all time. In the first weekend it was $41 million. For Melania? Not anywhere close.”
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