Michael R. Pompeo was secretary of state in the first Trump administration.
The situation unfolding in Syria is extremely dangerous and threatens the United States’ hard-won victories against the Islamic State as well as President Donald Trump’s broader achievements for regional security. If reports that the U.S. intends to withdraw its last remaining forces from Syria are correct, Washington will be gambling with the security of U.S. military assets in the Middle East, with regional stability and with the safety of the American people.
The military and political rout of the Kurdish-led, U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa represents a perilous development. Just one month after the U.S. granted the new Syrian government significant sanctions relief, al-Sharaa has repaid the gesture by going back on his assurances of moderation and respect for minority rights in his quest to consolidate power. Even more worrying, after government forces wrested control of an area formerly held by the SDF, an unknown number of ISIS members reportedly escaped from the Shaddadi prison, putting U.S. military and American lives at risk.
Make no mistake: These developments could precipitate a major crisis, not just for minority groups such as the Druze and the Kurds, but for the entire region. If unchecked, we could soon see mass displacement, ethnic cleansing and the possible reemergence of ISIS as a powerful player inside Syria and a global terrorist threat.
The SDF fought valiantly on behalf of the U.S. to help destroy the ISIS caliphate — one of the signature achievements of the first Trump administration. Yet there are worrying signs that Washington is not only getting ready to withdraw its forces but may also renege upon its commitment to the SDF — leaving its fate in the hands of an untested Syrian government that could easily turn out to be a bad actor.
If the U.S. doesn’t act fast, the achievements of the first Trump term could be reversed just as the president stands on the verge of realizing his goal of a new era of peace in the Middle East. What’s more, the perception that Washington has abandoned a proven partner in the fight against terrorism will have serious implications for American credibility and deterrence across the region.
Let’s not forget what enabled ISIS to rise in the first place: America’s retreat and unwillingness to keep its word. President Barack Obama’s disastrous pullout from Iraq left a vacuum that ISIS quickly filled, at its peak controlling a third of Syria and 40 percent of Iraq — territory roughly the size of Great Britain. Obama’s apology tour, nonstop appeasement of America’s enemies and unwillingness to enforce “red lines” emboldened ISIS to push further and further, beheading American captives and orchestrating a new surge of global terrorism abroad, including in Paris, Brussels and Orlando.
It’s understandable that the Trump administration hoped for a constructive partner in the new Syrian government, but al-Sharaa’s background as the leader of an al-Qaeda affiliate suggests the need to tread carefully. The fact is, the Syrian Ministry of Defense has too many Islamists and Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers among its ranks, and ongoing attacks against religious and ethnic minorities over the past year indicate that the government lacks either the capacity or the will to protect them.
Though there were reasonable arguments in favor of repealing the 2019 Caesar Act — the law that imposed sanctions on individuals, entities and businesses supporting the regime of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad — doing so meant that the U.S. gave up a critical source of leverage over this new Syrian government. Unfortunately, it now appears to be paying the price for this misplaced trust.
Whatever brought matters to this point, Washington must act swiftly and decisively to support its partners and reestablish its leverage over al-Sharaa.
Ideally, this would start with establishing a buffer or separation line between SDF and government forces, potentially backed by a limited U.S. and coalition presence. At a minimum, the administration and Congress should work together to swiftly reimpose sanctions as a way to pressure al-Sharaa to honor the government’s promises to Syria’s minorities, pull back from the military campaign against the SDF and crack down on any resurgence of ISIS or other terrorist groups. Key targets for sanctions should include the Syrian oil industry, other industrial and trade entities controlled by the transitional government, the financial sector and individual militia leaders.
Working with other regional partners, the U.S. should use its unparalleled convening power to broker a military and security framework that protects competing interest groups within Syria and prevents internal collapse. This won’t be easy, especially given that it appears that al-Sharaa’s government is acting in concert with Turkey. But to avoid potential disaster, it is imperative that U.S. policymakers and diplomats marshal every tool at their disposal to secure an outcome that puts Syria back on the path to stability and peace.
From Operation Midnight Hammer to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump has proven his willingness to deploy hard power to secure American interests. The U.S. must ensure that al-Sharaa understands that it is perfectly willing to follow that precedent should he refuse to pull back from this dangerous course. Regional stability — and potentially American lives — are at stake. We cannot allow history to repeat itself in Syria.
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