LONDON — Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to visit China this week, aiming to forge a more consistent, pragmatic relationship with Beijing as the United Kingdom and other intermediate powers reassess their interests in an increasingly unstable global order and with an unpredictable administration in Washington.
The three-day visit is perhaps the highest-stakes journey abroad for Starmer since he took over at No. 10 Downing Street in July 2024, atop the first Labour government in more than 14 years. It also risks angering President Donald Trump who, on Saturday, threatened Canada with 100 percent tariffs over its recent efforts to improve trade ties with China.
Starmer’s trip follows weeks of tension with Trump over his threats — since pulled back — about using military force to seize Greenland, and wider unease among European allies over Washington’s reliability on security and trade.
Rather than framing China as a partner or an adversary, analysts say Britain, like Canada, the European Union and some other Western nations, is treating Beijing as a strategic reality that must be managed. “Britain has got to find alternatives,” said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese Studies at King’s College London. “Everyone has, really.”
The visit is unfolding amid a broader flurry of diplomacy between Europe and China, including trips to Beijing in recent weeks by Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo and Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to visit China in February, according to German media reports.
Orpo, who was accompanied to China by a delegation of Finnish companies, met Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday. Perhaps in an effort to capitalize on transatlantic tensions, Xi told Orpo that “China and the E.U. are partners, not rivals — cooperation outweighs competition, and consensus outweighs differences,” according to an official Chinese readout.
Trump’s attitude toward traditional alliances is pushing Europe and China into one another’s arms, said Zhao Yongsheng, a researcher at the Research Institute for Global Value Chains at Beijing’s University of International Business and Economics. “Due to Trump’s policies, the European Union … has been forced to engage with China, and the warming process of the relationship is accelerating,” Zhao said.
The timing of Starmer’s visit has drawn notice in Britain. Just days ago, the British government approved plans for a sprawling new Chinese embassy in London — a decision that had been stalled for years amid political and security concerns — and which critics say underscores a broader softening in tone.
In 2021, Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson, hosted a Group of Seven summit in Carbis Bay, England, that yielded one of the toughest Western statements on China, demanding respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, voicing concern over forced labor and unfair, nonmarket practices, calling for further inquiry into the covid pandemic’s origin in China, and warning against increased military tension in the seas around Taiwan.
Now, however, with Trump leading what seems to be a return to Great Game politics dominated by the largest military powers, Starmer is expected to travel with senior executives from some of Britain’s largest companies, as the U.K. seeks to boost trade with China, the world’s second-largest economy.
Other U.S. allies have begun to recalibrate. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently visited China and announced a deal to lower tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles — shifting from a previous high-tariff policy that had been aligned with the United States.
Trump on Saturday reacted furiously to Carney’s move and threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada agreed to a free trade deal with China. Carney said no such deal was planned.
It’s unclear how Britain and Europe would withstand similar threats from Trump, said Li Xing, professor of international relations at Guangdong University of Foreign Studies. The rush of high-level visits to Beijing “are all attempts to increase trade with China and ease tensions,” Li said. “But how much can these relations and the easing of tensions withstand Trump’s tariff threats? That remains a big question mark.”
Starmer has said Britain must stop blowing “hot and cold” on China. “We had the golden age, which then flipped to an ice age,” he said in a speech in December. “We reject that binary choice.”
The reference was what was known as “golden era” under Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne a decade ago, when Britain openly courted Chinese investment — a moment memorably captured when Cameron took Xi for a pint at a pub. Relations cooled sharply during the covid pandemic, amid rising security concerns and criticism of Beijing’s human rights record, including its crackdown on protests in Hong Kong.
Analysts say the current reset is notably more restrained. Starmer has insisted that protecting national security is “nonnegotiable,” while arguing that firm safeguards can coexist with cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Still, critics question whether the government is moving too quickly.
Last year, a case against two men accused of spying for China collapsed shortly before trial, sparking a political debate over intelligence failures. Others have raised alarm about the new Chinese embassy, warning it could facilitate surveillance operations given its proximity to key financial districts and communications infrastructure.
Some former ministers and China hawks argue that the reset risks overlooking Beijing’s human rights record, particularly in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Starmer is expected to raise concerns even as he seeks closer economic ties.
Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, said the previous Conservative government favored stronger “guardrails,” while Starmer’s Labour team appears more focused on improving economic ties.
“Fundamentally, the two countries do not share basic values and interests,” Tsang said. “On the other hand, the U.K. does want to improve relations with China in order to stimulate the economy and get out of the pickle that we are in.”
The proposed embassy — estimated to have a footprint exceeding 600,000 square feet and be larger than the U.S. Embassy in London — has become a flash point.
Lawmakers have warned that the development could pose intelligence risks, although Britain’s security services say the threat can be managed. Ben Bland, Asia-Pacific director at the think tank Chatham House, said the controversy risked overshadowing larger strategic question of managing relations with a major power that Britain must do business with while mitigating security threats.
Starmer has sent senior figures to Beijing. Chancellor Rachel Reeves visited last year, returning with announcements of £600 million (about $822 million) in prospective investment — a figure widely viewed as modest. Expectations for the prime minister’s trip are higher.
“The main thing is, what are the tangible outcomes?” said Brown of King’s College London. Beyond symbolism, analysts say Britain will be looking for concrete progress on market access, technology cooperation, and investment frameworks — although not a full free trade agreement.
Potential areas of cooperation include climate policy, artificial intelligence, public health, and joint research and development, including in pharmaceuticals and cancer treatment. At the same time, London is expected to raise concerns about Hong Kong and human rights, a performative ritual that Beijing has learned to tolerate as the price of engagement.
For China, the visit offers its own advantages. Beijing is keen to project itself as a stable partner at a moment when many countries are hedging against American unpredictability, analysts say — a narrative that plays well domestically and abroad.
But there are persistent diplomatic issues limiting the détente, including trade disputes over cheap Chinese exports flooding European markets as well as concerns about Beijing’s support for Russia as it wages war against Ukraine. A comprehensive trade pact between Europe in China fell apart in 2021 amid concerns from European lawmakers about China’s human rights abuses.
“Europeans don’t genuinely admire China,” Zhao added. “This relationship is based on necessity, not love.”
A spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed Starmer’s visit on Tuesday, saying that the two sides plan to work on investment and trade cooperation agreements, and that representatives from over 50 British companies and institutions would take part in the trip.
“Amidst escalating global trade protectionism, both China and the United Kingdom uphold free trade and the multilateral trading system,” the spokesperson said, adding that the diplomacy would help “continuously elevate China-United Kingdom economic and trade relations to new heights.”
More broadly, the trip reflects a shift in global thinking. As Brown put it, Europeans are increasingly forced to confront a world in which the United States is no longer a straightforward security guarantor and China is not a simple threat.
That recalibration, he said, is no longer abstract: “It’s real now.”
Northrop reported from Taipei and Li from Seoul.
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