Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s odds of leaving President Donald Trump’s Cabinet have spiked after two Americans were shot dead by federal agents in Minnesota.
Noem, 54, is now the favorite to be the first to be fired or to resign from the Trump administration on prediction markets Kalshi, which gives her a 37 percent chance, and Polymarket, which gives her a 29 percent chance.
Even worse for Noem, she also has the highest odds of leaving or being forced out of the Cabinet by 2027 on Polymarket, where she is listed at 63 percent to exit the administration by then.
Attorney General Pam Bondi, still under fire for bungling the release of the Epstein files, is the second-most-likely to depart by 2027, at 49 percent on Polymarket.
She is followed by FBI Director Kash Patel, who has been a negative headline machine for the administration, from touting major arrests prematurely to using an FBI jet to frequently fly to visit his country-music-singer girlfriend. Most recently, his diva demands became public.
Patel has a 48 percent chance of leaving the administration by 2027, followed by close Elon Musk ally David Sacks, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
As of now, though, Noem is the runaway favorite to depart the administration first. She rushed to defend the ICE agent who killed Renee Nicole Good on Jan. 7, and did the same for a Border Patrol agent who fatally shot Veterans Affairs nurse Alex Pretti in Minneapolis on Saturday.
Trump, 79, was quick to defend the ICE agent who killed Good. He lied about the circumstances that preceded the shooting—claiming that the agent, Jonathan Ross, had been run over before firing his weapon, when footage showed that was not true.
The president has been much more hesitant to get behind Noem’s loony justification of Pretti’s killing. He repeatedly declined to say whether the Border Patrol agent who killed Pretti had “done the right thing” in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Noem, meanwhile, asserts that Pretti, who had a concealed-carry gun permit, turned up “with weapons and ammunition to stop a law enforcement operation,” had committed “an act of domestic terrorism,” and had the intention of massacring federal agents.
Videos show Pretti never brandished his handgun at the scene. Rather, he went to help a woman who was shoved to the ground by a federal agent. By the time he was gunned down on the pavement, Pretti had already been disarmed by an officer, the footage shows.
Republicans have broken ranks to criticize Noem and the conduct of the unidentified officer who killed Pretti.
Vermont’s Republican Gov. Phil Scott said the killing of Good and Pretti was “murder.”
Republican Rep. James Comer, a staunch Trump supporter out of Kentucky, said the president should pull federal agents out of Minneapolis to save “innocent lives.”
Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, of Louisiana, called Pretti’s killing “incredibly disturbing” and demanded a full investigation.
“The credibility of ICE and DHS are at stake,” he said. “There must be a full joint federal and state investigation. We can trust the American people with the truth.”
Conservative media have also called out Noem.
The Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board wrote that Noem’s claim about Pretti “simply isn’t believable.” The Free Press, which was founded by CBS News’ MAGA-curious boss, Bari Weiss, published a column Monday headlined, “Kristi Noem’s Reckless Lies.”
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