Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for the NFL conference championships.
All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last week, Farmer posted a 4-0 (1.000) record. He has a 179-103 (.635) record over the regular season and playoffs.
Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread last week was 2-2 (.500). His record against the spread in the regular season and the playoffs is 129-153 (.457).
All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area.
No. 2 Patriots at No. 1 Broncos
Sunday, noon. TV: CBS, Paramount+.
Line: Patriots by 4½. O/U: 42½.
Obviously, the Bo Nix injury changes this game dramatically. Mostly in light of the way the Denver quarterback was playing in the fourth quarter of games. But drawing up a workable game plan for Jarrett Stidham is right in Sean Payton’s wheelhouse, so don’t count out the Broncos. What’s more, Drake Maye has fumbled a combined six times in the last two games, so this won’t be a cakewalk for the Patriots. Still, it feels like New England should get the edge, having beaten a solid defense (Chargers) and an outstanding one (Houston) in the run-up to this game. The Patriots are back to playing the run tough, too, with the return of Milton Williams in the middle. A Denver win wouldn’t be shocking, but New England has a slight advantage.
Pick: Patriots 24, Broncos 20
No. 5 Rams at No. 1 Seahawks
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. TV: Fox, Fox Deportes.
Line: Seahawks by 2½. O/U: 46½.
These have been the NFL’s two best teams all season, and the Seahawks are the league’s most complete team. I can make a strong argument in favor of either to win. In their two games this season, they were separated by a combined one point and one yard. That said, the Seahawks do not play the Rams as well as they play the rest of their opponents. In five games pitting Sean McVay and Mike Macdonald — dating to Macdonald’s days as defensive coordinator in Baltimore — McVay‘s teams have averaged 28 points. The Seahawks surrendered an average of 17.2 points to all other opponents this season. It doesn’t help Seattle that Zach Charbonnet is out, especially in pass protection. This could boil down to Sam Darnold versus Matthew Stafford. I’m taking Stafford.
Pick: Rams 31, Seahawks 28
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