The Oscar nominations were announced Thursday morning, lavishing love on the season-long front-runners “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” Still, not every contender had cause for celebration. Here’s my analysis of the biggest snubs and surprises.
‘Sinners’ hits a historic high
Seventy-five years after “All About Eve” set the Oscar record with 14 nominations — a total matched by only “Titanic” and “La La Land” — a new high-water mark has finally been reached. The introduction of a casting Oscar helped give “Sinners” the boost it needed to earn a record-setting 16 nominations, including expected nods for best picture and the director Ryan Coogler as well as three acting ones for Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo. Still, “Sinners” would have broken the record even without that new category, and the movie’s superlative strength distinguishes it as the only contender with a chance at beating “One Battle After Another” for best picture.
‘Wicked’ underperforms
Sequel-itis is real. While the first “Wicked” conjured an impressive 10 Oscar nominations — for the leading lady Cynthia Erivo, the supporting actress Ariana Grande and best picture, among others — the follow-up “Wicked: For Good” failed to defy gravity and was snubbed across the board. Mixed reviews and softer box-office returns didn’t help, though these days, even a well-received sequel like “Dune: Part Two” can be met with a “been there, done that” shrug from Oscar voters. The days when a franchise like “Lord of the Rings” could accrue more Oscar firepower with further installments appear long gone.
‘One Battle After Another’ loses a fight
Awards strategists spend many billable hours debating whether to campaign actors in the lead or supporting categories, and this season’s most high-profile test case was Chase Infiniti, who played the daughter of Leonardo DiCaprio’s character in “One Battle After Another.” She enters the film late enough that a supporting placement might be presumed, but this year’s best-actress field felt so thin that Warner Bros. pushed her as a lead, especially since it would clear space in the supporting category for the film’s standout, Teyana Taylor. Still, Infiniti probably split votes across both categories and ultimately landed in neither, much like the “Hamnet” star Paul Mescal, a snubbed supporting-actor contender who could have been plausibly positioned as a lead.
A Palme winner peters out
Ever since “Parasite” (2020) took both the Palme d’Or and the best-picture Oscar, the relationship between the Cannes Film Festival and the Academy Awards has grown increasingly aligned: The last three Palme winners went on to earn director and picture nominations. Since they were all released by the hot indie studio Neon, there was every reason to think the distributor’s latest Cannes champ, “It Was Just An Accident,” would keep the streak alive. But though that Iranian drama managed nominations for international feature and original screenplay, two other Neon films from Cannes — “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” — edged it out of the best-picture race.
The best actor race is a bloodbath
This year’s field of best-actor contenders was so strong that several snubs would have been shoo-ins nearly any other season. The “Bugonia” star Jesse Plemons scored a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild and was probably just outside the final five, given how well his film did in other categories. “Train Dreams” earned four nominations but nothing for Joel Edgerton, who’s in every scene. And several big stars who swanned through the fall film festivals — including Dwayne Johnson (“The Smashing Machine”), George Clooney (“Jay Kelly”) and Jeremy Allen White (“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”) — couldn’t keep that faltering momentum in the new year.
An Oscar favorite is overlooked
When she was 25, Jennifer Lawrence became the youngest actor to earn four Oscar nominations, a remarkable run that included her win for “Silver Linings Playbook.” But Lawrence hasn’t scored another nomination since, and even her well-reviewed performance as a frustrated new mother in “Die My Love” couldn’t return her to past heights. Perhaps Martin Scorsese’s “What Happens at Night,” which she’ll film this year alongside Leonardo DiCaprio, will bring her back to Oscar voters’ attention.
Kate Hudson has something to sing about
Though the best-actress category left out the likes of Lawrence, Infiniti, Erivo and “The Testament of Ann Lee” star Amanda Seyfried, one nominee who surged at the right time was Kate Hudson, nominated for singing Neil Diamond covers alongside Hugh Jackman in “Song Sung Blue.” The well-connected actress has been working it all season, drawing Oscar-winning stars like DiCaprio and Al Pacino to her screenings. The film’s modest but respectable box-office showing helped, too: Even non-industry moviegoers have been eager to talk about her performance with me in recent weeks.
Guillermo del Toro misses
Oscar voters love Guillermo del Toro, a former best-director winner for “The Shape of Water.” Anyone who has heard him speak passionately about his movies at Q. and A’s. comes out ready to cast a vote, though that generosity didn’t extend to the man himself this year: Despite earning nine nominations, “Frankenstein” didn’t manage a director nod. (Instead, del Toro’s presumed place in the lineup was taken by the “Sentimental Value” director Joachim Trier). Could the film’s snub in the visual-effects category have been a clue that though voters adore del Toro, they do have some quibbles?
‘F1’ comes from behind
As the best-picture field started to come together over the last few weeks, nine nominees seemed all but certain, with a free-for-all for the 10th slot. Could it go to “Weapons,” a big hit featuring the supporting-actress contender Amy Madigan? Maybe “Blue Moon,” which managed nominations for its screenplay and star, Ethan Hawke? Nope: In the end, Oscar voters shrugged and nominated the cars-go-vroom vehicle “F1,” which managed a Producers Guild nod but otherwise failed to earn a single above-the-line nomination all season. What are we doing here, guys? In a world where “It Was Just An Accident” couldn’t make it into best picture, we’re nominating “F1,” a silly race-car movie that boasts little besides a fun Tate McRae song and countless shirtless shots of star Brad Pitt? It’s time to wave the red flag.
Kyle Buchanan is a pop culture reporter and also serves as The Projectionist, the awards season columnist for The Times.
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