A major winter storm is expected to affect large parts of the southern and eastern United States later this week, but forecasters said on Tuesday that there were still significant questions over where exactly the potent mix of heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain and ice would hit.
The most extreme weather is likely to begin on Thursday with a new surge of arctic air that will push temperatures even lower than they already are.
Much of the central and eastern United States may see temperatures fall as much as 30 degrees below the average for this time of year. The most severe cold is expected in the Upper Midwest, where wind chills — the combined effect of cold air and wind on exposed skin — may fall to around minus 50 degrees.
By Friday, with the frigid air in place, Bob Oravec, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, said “the main ingredients are there” for a significant winter storm. As the system moves across the South, it will pull moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico. That humid air will collide with the cold air and produce a “large slab” of snow and ice, stretching from the Southern Plains through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic from Friday through the weekend, Mr. Oravec said.
While uncertainty remains around the finer details — which is typical this far in advance — Mr. Oravec said there was strong agreement among the forecast models on the overall setup and impacts of the storm.
“We’re highly confident it’s going to be a really impactful event,” he said. “Typically as we get closer to the event, the finer details do tend to become more certain.”
Here is what forecasters know so far:
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Confidence among meteorologists is very high that a significant winter storm will occur, bringing heavy snow from the southern Rockies across the south-central Plains and east through the Mid-Atlantic. They warned that these areas were likely to face travel difficulties from snow-covered roads and reduced visibility.
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While some areas will mainly see snow, some places farther south are more likely to see freezing rain, sleet and ice, bringing additional hazardous travel conditions and power outages to regions of the South that are less accustomed to severe winter weather.
Here is what is uncertain:
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The magnitude of the storm. The total amount of snow, ice and freezing rain expected for each location is still unknown.
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The exact location of where the storm develops and tracks. This will dictate where the line between snow and ice will be.
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How far north and south the heaviest snow will reach.
The storm follows closely behind a quick-hitting winter system that brought snow to parts of the Southeast, including areas of Florida and Georgia, last weekend. Mr. Oravec said this week’s storm was not expected to reach as far south.
“At the moment, the southern edge of that wintry weather may be northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia into South Carolina,” he said. “It could definitely impact a lot of big cities in the South, especially Memphis, over to Atlanta, Raleigh, as well as Dallas, Oklahoma City, Little Rock.”
As the storm moves east through the weekend, Mr. Oravec said, parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast could see impactful winter weather. Cities including Richmond, Va., Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston may be affected, particularly later Sunday and into Monday.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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