Trump’s Ultimatum to Europe

I’m on my way to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where some of the richest and most powerful people in the world gather once a year for a week of high-level hobnobbing and lavish partying. President Trump will be there.

One issue that will no doubt animate conversations this week is the fate of Greenland — and with it the fate of the NATO alliance. Trump has threatened European nations with steep tariffs unless they let him take over the Arctic island. Today I write about how far Europe might be prepared to go to respond.

Europe and the U.S. on a collision course

The gloves are officially off.

In a Truth Social post this weekend, President Trump gave an ultimatum to Europe: If they didn’t allow “the Complete and Total purchase” of Greenland, he would slap tariffs on a group of European countries, 10 percent in February, and then 25 percent in June.

European leaders responded that they would not be bullied.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain called the ultimatum “completely wrong.” President Emmanuel Macron of France went so far as to say Europe should retaliate with the strongest trade tool at its disposable: activating a regulation that could restrict the access of American companies to the E.U. market.

Within hours of the post, members of the European Parliament announced that they would freeze the ratification of Europe’s trade deal with Trump. European leaders are set to hold an extraordinary meeting in the coming days to try to agree on a response to Trump’s threats.

Europe remains heavily reliant on the United States for support through NATO and in Russia’s war with Ukraine. That has been the biggest reason European leaders have shown such restraint in their dealings with Trump so far.

They accepted higher U.S. tariffs last year. They paid their respects in a series of visits to the White House. They were subdued in their criticism when time and time again Trump appeared to favor Russia’s position over Ukraine’s. On Venezuela, they barely spoke up at all.

But Trump’s move to take over Greenland, an autonomous territory that is controlled by Denmark, a member of both NATO and the E.U., has left Europe with no option but to respond.

The question is how much leverage Europe has over Trump. It turns out quite a lot. But that leverage also potentially comes at a high cost.

Trade bazooka

The trade tool Macron has suggested hitting the U.S. with is officially called the “anti-coercion instrument” — better known as Europe’s trade bazooka. It has never been invoked, not even when Trump imposed tariffs on E.U. countries last year.

I spoke to my colleague Jeanna Smialek in Brussels, who has reported on Trump’s new trade war with Europe. Jeanna told me that many American companies, especially American service companies, rely on access to the European Union, the biggest single market in the world.

The bazooka could be used to slap limitations on big American tech companies or other service providers with significant business on the continent.

“If you’re Apple or Google or Meta or any of these various tech firms, you’re very dependent on the European consumer,” Jeanna said. “That gives Europe a lot of ability to turn up the heat or put on pressure when it comes to access to those consumers.”

Going after Big Tech would sharply ratchet up trans-Atlantic tensions. It would also come at a cost to European consumers.

“If you use tools that block access to Google or Facebook or Instagram, that’s not a costless proposition,” Jeanna said. “It would mean European citizens have less access, or maybe they have more expensive access.”

As a first step, the E.U. could also allow a 93 billion euro list of retaliatory tariffs on goods drawn up last year to take hold, officials told Jeanna.

Betrayed, bewildered, frightened

Still, there now appears to be a groundswell of support in Europe for standing up to Trump.

On Saturday, people across Greenland held protests. Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen led a march through the capital, Nuuk, at one point climbing onto a snowbank to raise a Greenlandic flag.

Polls have shown that Greenlanders prefer to remain a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. I spoke to my colleague Jeffrey Gettleman, who is on the ground in Nuuk, about the reaction of people there. You can watch our conversation above.

In Denmark, thousands marched to the U.S. Embassy in Copenhagen. Danes, who fought alongside American soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq, say they feel betrayed, bewildered and frightened by Trump’s threats.

Trump argues that the U.S. needs to control Greenland as a bulwark against Chinese and Russian ambitions in the Arctic. But the U.S. already has the right to expand its military presence in Greenland under a 1951 agreement with Denmark.

His tariff threats came after several European countries sent troops to Greenland to take part in military exercises alongside Danish forces last week — a show of solidarity that may have angered Trump. The same nations are now threatened by additional tariffs.

A moment for Europe to decide

It’s too early to know whether Europe will actually go through with retaliatory measures, Jeanna told me. Europe’s military dependence on the U.S. remains. The U.S. is vital to the defense of Ukraine. But Greenland has changed the calculation.

“This is a threat to a nation’s sovereignty,” Jeanna said. “This could be the moment that finally causes Europeans to switch sides on using these really aggressive trade tools.”

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