Days before protests erupted in Iran in late December, Israeli officials notified the Iranian leadership via Russia that they would not launch strikes against Iran if Israel were not attacked first. Iran responded through the Russian channel that it would also refrain from a preemptive attack, diplomats and regional officials with knowledge of the exchange said.
The communications between Israel and Iran — and the role played by Russia as the intermediary — were unusual given the hostility between the two Middle Eastern rivals, which engaged in a 12-day war in June.
But the contacts reflected a desire by Israel to avoid being perceived as escalating tensions toward Iran or spearheading any potential new wave of attacks against it at a time when Israel was preparing a significant military campaign against Hezbollah, the Iran-aligned militia in Lebanon, according to the diplomats and regional officials. The private reassurances contrasted with Israel’s public rhetoric late last year, when its officials openly hinted at the possibility of carrying out renewed strikes on Iran to roll back what they said was Iran’s rapidly replenishing ballistic missile stockpile.
Although Iranian officials responded positively to the Israeli outreach, they were wary of Israel’s intentions, two officials with knowledge of the message exchange said. Iran believed that even if the Israeli assurances were genuine, they left open the possibility that the U.S. military would carry out attacks on Iran as part of a campaign coordinated between the two allies, while Israel was training its firepower strictly on Hezbollah, the officials said.
Still, “for Iran, it was a good deal” to stay out of any Israel-Hezbollah clash, said a senior official in the region who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive communications. U.S. officials have said that Iran’s substantive support for Hezbollah, in any case, has already decreased as Tehran grapples with domestic upheaval.
It’s not clear now how the furious protests in Iran in recent weeks, which have challenged the government’s grip on power, have changed Israel’s and Iran’s calculations and whether the two countries will still abide by their private agreement. President Donald Trump has been weighing attacks against Iranian regime targets in response to the crackdown on the protest movement, which could provoke Iran to retaliate against Israel, a U.S. ally, analysts say.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that if attacked, Iran would retaliate against U.S. military bases in the Middle East, the news agency reported Wednesday, without mentioning Israel as among the potential targets.
Nor is it clear whether Israeli officials would renege on their December reassurances and join in a U.S.-led attack if they sensed an opportunity to topple the Iranian government. As protests flared in Iran, Israeli officials described their military preparations as defensive in nature, and Israeli government and security officials have avoided overtly bellicose language. In June, Israel launched an elaborate surprise attack against Iran even as nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran were underway.
“Israel is giving the U.S. the leading role [in any potential strikes against Iran], but there is no question Israel would love to see regime change because that would change the Middle East — as well as Hezbollah,” said Sima Shine, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and former head of research at the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. “But Israel could be a target for the Iranian response, and therefore Israel has already taken a lot of steps to be better defended and prepared.”
For Israel, the outreach to Iran was designed to keep Tehran on the sidelines and leave Hezbollah isolated if Israel were to attack. The “same logic” may hold today, with Israel seeking to prevent it and Iran from trading direct blows, at least initially, an Israeli official said. The official added that a military campaign against Hezbollah was not off the table, regardless of what transpires with Iran. Israel has warned that it continues to face a threat from Hezbollah, because the group has failed to disarm.
“The [Lebanon] campaign will take place, and Hezbollah will be heavily targeted,” the official added. “The question is if it’s during or after the Iran war.”
The most recent exchange of messages between Israel and Iran came in late December, shortly after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Moscow, the senior regional official said. It was not the first time that Russia has sought to serve as an intermediary between the two countries or bolster its standing with Trump as a mediator to win concessions in negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin previously raised to Trump the idea of serving as an intermediary between Israel and Iran, according to a Russian academic close to senior Russian diplomats. Trump declined the offer, this person said, telling the Russians “to deal with Ukraine first.” It’s not clear whether the December exchanges took place with Washington’s knowledge or participation.
The Israeli public broadcaster KAN reported last week that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had recently asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to relay messages to Iran that Israel did not intend to attack it.
A spokesman in Netanyahu’s office and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to requests for comment.
Adam Chamseddine and Catherine Belton contributed to this report.
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