In 2012, President Barack Obama drew a red line with Syria, warning dictator Bashar al-Assad that if he used chemical weapons against his people, the United States would take military action. Assad responded by crossing Obama’s red line not once, not twice, but at least 14 times. But instead of imposing the promised consequences, Obama failed to act. This head-spinning reversal sent a message of American weakness that was heard from Damascus to Moscow, Tehran, Beijing and Pyongyang.
When Donald Trump took office, he did not hesitate to act when Assad again used chemical weapons on civilians — bombing Syria twice, enforcing Obama’s red line and restoring America’s credibility.
Now, Trump has drawn a red line of his own, warning the regime in Tehran: “If Iran [shoots] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” adding, “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.” So there was no misunderstanding, he issued a second warning, telling Iran: “You better not start shooting, because we’ll start shooting, too.”
Like Assad before them, Iran’s leaders have miscalculated, killing thousands of protesters; CBS reported Tuesday that two sources, including one inside Iran, had put the number of dead at least 12,000 and potentially as many as 20,000. Now, the president has sent a message to the Iranian people: “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING — TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!!”
Iran’s leaders sure are slow learners. In 2019, Trump warned them that if they or their proxies killed a single American, the United States would respond militarily against Iran. When they crossed his red line, Trump took out Iran’s terrorist mastermind, Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force.
Then, on returning to office last year, Trump gave Iran’s leaders an “ultimate ultimatum” to peacefully give up their nuclear weapons program — and when they failed to do so, he obliterated it in Operation Midnight Hammer. And he warned Iran that if it did not change its behavior, more military action was in store: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”
Perhaps realizing they miscalculated, Iranian officials suddenly reached out and offered to negotiate on their nuclear program — apparently thinking that dangling a nuclear deal before Trump could stave off a decapitation strike. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Vice President JD Vance was leading an effort inside the administration to take Iran up on its offer and steer Trump toward engaging the regime in nuclear diplomacy.
That would only repeat another disastrous Obama policy — when in 2009, the Iranian people rose up against the regime only to watch Obama fail to support them in order to negotiate a disastrous nuclear deal with their oppressors. Unlike Obama, Trump is not taking the bait. Good for him.
There is no downside to striking the regime. Trump has already done so twice, and each time, Iran was unable or unwilling to retaliate. Indeed, the Soleimani strike came at a time when Iran was much stronger than it is today. Since then, Iran has suffered repeated blows that have left it weaker than at any time since the 1979 revolution.
Its network of terrorist proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis — has been devastated by Israeli and American military strikes. The Assad regime in Syria is no more, depriving Iran of its most significant Arab ally and the arms highway it used to supply its proxies. Thanks to Trump’s restoration of “maximum pressure,” the value of Iran’s currency has fallen to record lows. The Israel Defense Forces has destroyed most of Iran’s air defenses and ballistic missile capabilities, while the U.S. has demolished its nuclear facilities.
In other words, Iran is strategically naked — unable to effectively defend itself against a U.S. strike or respond decisively either directly or by proxy. This gives Trump a historic opportunity to deal the regime a mortal blow. The Iranian regime has bedeviled every American president since Jimmy Carter. It has killed more Americans than any terrorist state. And now it is killing Iranians by the thousands in a desperate attempt to maintain its grip on power. Trump has the ability to obliterate its leaders and its architecture of repression, just as he did its nuclear weapons program. He should do it.
If he does, I predict that before the year is out, he will visit a free Tehran — and receive a hero’s welcome from the Iranian people.
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