An increasing number of Americans have become reluctant to identify themselves as a member of either major party, according to Gallup, a potential warning sign for both parties that comes as Democrats have regained their edge over Republicans when it comes to which party voters are more likely to lean toward.
The data released by Gallup this week showed that a record-high share of voters — 45 percent — now identify as politically independent. That growth was led by voters under the age of 30, more than half of whom choose to identify as independent, compared with roughly a third of voters over the age of 65.
The growing number of people who identify as independent, however, should not be taken as a sign that people have become less partisan. When pushed, a majority of independents say they side with one political party over the other. In Gallup’s report, that push to side with a party revealed Democrats having a 47 to 42 lead heading into the midterm election cycle.
The issue leading to the rise of identifying as independent appears to be overall dissatisfaction with the major parties — a reality reflected in the fact that an NBC poll in October showed only 28 percent of voters had a positive view of the Democratic Party and only 37 percent had a positive view of the Republican Party.
Younger generations have always been more likely to be independent, but voters are increasingly holding on to that identification. For example, Gallup’s data showed that people between the ages of 30 and 49 are about as likely to identify as independent now as they were in 2012.
“Typically young voters start out as politically independent as they are forming their political identity, and then as they age, they become more party affiliated,” said Thom Reilly, a professor of public affairs at Arizona State University who studies generations and partisan affiliation.
Dr. Reilly said the current crop of younger voters, however, are no longer looking to parties for answers.
“They have come to not trust the parties as a source of information and retain that political independence for longer,” he said.
The overall share of Americans who identify as politically independent has been on the rise since the mid 2000s, overtaking the major political parties, each of which are now represented by 27 percent of respondents in the recent Gallup findings.
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What it means to be labeled independent varies widely, with only 38 percent of people who identify that way following the traditional archetype of fully identifying as outside the two-party system, according to polling from CNN.
That group of entirely unaffiliated voters splits about evenly into two groups.
One consists of younger, more racially and ethnically diverse voters who feel the political system is generally working well, but say they tend to agree more with one party on certain issues and another party on other issues. In other words, classic swing voters, whose support is heavily courted every November.
The other half are independents who feel disillusioned with the political system. This group is largely white and mostly men. Some of that group vote for third parties or just generally feel angry toward both parties.
A large majority of people who call themselves independent, however, lean toward one political party when pushed — a group that researchers have long understood is not that politically different from those who outright identify with a single party. And that is where Democrats have made up ground.
This is a return to form for Democrats who led in this metric for decades before being overtaken by Republicans from 2022 to 2024. And if it is reflected in party registration patterns, it may help calm fears in the Democratic Party, which faced persistent drops in the number of voters registering with the party through 2024 and going into 2025.
As the midterm election cycle gets into swing, Democrats have an edge on the generic congressional ballot. And based on Gallup’s numbers, they have a voter lead similar to the one they had ahead of the 2018 elections, in which the party regained control of the House.
But, as many researchers caution, identifying with a political party and voting for a political party are not always the same thing.
Ruth Igielnik is a Times polling editor who conducts polls and analyzes and reports on the results.
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