Good morning. The U.S. economy closed out 2025 with a puzzling mix: sluggish job growth alongside accelerating productivity.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 50,000 in December 2025, missing the 73,000 Dow Jones estimate and slowing from November’s revised gain of 56,000. November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 jobs, while October’s loss deepened to 173,000 from 105,000. For 2025 as a whole, payrolls grew by an average of 49,000 jobs per month, down sharply from 168,000 in 2024.
Bank of America Global Research analysts wrote in a report on Friday that although payroll growth has slowed since June, the unemployment rate has risen by only about 11 basis points. The report noted, “We have been highlighting that tighter immigration restrictions are likely to play a bigger role in the slowdown in job growth this year.”
The unemployment rate is a key statistic for the Federal Reserve, and markets responded to Friday’s miss by pricing out a January rate cut, according to the analysts. Futures now imply less than half a cut priced in through April, which marks the end of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s term.
The productivity factor
Despite weak job growth, forecasts still point to solid overall economic expansion. I asked Gregory Daco, EY chief economist, how the U.S. economy can continue to grow strongly while hiring softens.
“We’re seeing a clear decoupling between growth and hiring,” Daco said. Output is still expanding, but companies are generating that growth with fewer incremental workers and fewer hours.
“Productivity has rebounded meaningfully as businesses continue to streamline operations, automate processes, and extract more output from existing teams in a high-cost, high-interest-rate environment,” Daco explained. “This isn’t AI-led in a narrow sense yet—it’s the payoff from multi-year efficiency drives, tighter cost discipline, and delayed hiring.”
According to the BLS, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, as output rose 5.4% while hours worked increased just 0.5%.
Areas of job growth
Where job growth has occurred, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend higher in December, adding 27,000 jobs. The sector added an average of 12,000 jobs per month in 2025, roughly in line with the 11,000 average monthly gain in 2024.
Health care employment also continued its upward trend in December, rising by 21,000 jobs, including a gain of 16,000 in hospitals. Health care added an average of 34,000 jobs per month in 2025, down from an average monthly increase of 56,000 in 2024.
Monster’s newly released 2026 Job Market Outlook also reflects these pockets of strength. Based on full-year 2025 job postings and job seeker data, the report shows employer demand remaining firm in health care, essential services, infrastructure-related roles, and skill-based jobs, even as other parts of the labor market slow.
‘Hiring hasn’t stopped’
As private payroll growth weakened throughout 2025 and hiring appetites diminished, I asked Daco whether he expects that trend to continue amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related risks.
“Yes—barring a material improvement in policy clarity, I expect hiring restraint to persist,” he said. Private payroll growth has already slowed sharply as firms shift into cost-control mode, with geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainty, and elevated financing costs reinforcing that bias, he explained.
“Hiring hasn’t stopped, but it has become more selective and more conditional on clear demand visibility,” Daco added. “In this environment, CFOs are likely to continue favoring efficiency, automation, and capex discipline over broad-based workforce expansion.”
Sheryl Estrada [email protected]
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