On Thursday, neither party really had the majority in the House.
Over the course of seven roll-call votes, the final tally showed five times that the exact same number of Republicans and Democrats had voted. The actual tallies of “yeas” and “nays” varied between noncontroversial legislation passed by wide margins to a narrow victory for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York), helped by a bloc of renegade Republicans.
But each side repeatedly had the same number of members casting votes, with 213 lawmakers on both sides of the aisle and a handful of Republicans missing.
That highly unusual outcome illustrates the incredible tightrope that the titular majority party — the GOP — walks every day that the House comes into session.
A couple of days ago, House GOP leaders had to delay a planned vote on legislation that would loosen regulations on the capacity of shower heads in response to a favorite line in President Donald Trump’s stump speeches railing against federal intrusion in private business. Several Republicans had signaled that they would not be on hand for votes, creating the possibility of a humiliating defeat. So the vote was delayed.
“With a lot of bills, you’re not just looking at when’s the best time to bring it. You are also looking at making sure that everybody is going to be there. There are always going to be days where it’s a very narrow majority,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said Friday.
A historically close 2024 election left the two sides almost tied at the outset of the 119th Congress last January, but other events have left House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) often holding the gavel in almost symbolic fashion on some days.
Three Republicans resigned outright: Mark Green (Tennessee) last summer; Marjorie Taylor Greene (Georgia) on Monday; and Matt Gaetz (Florida) in late 2024 before the new House was sworn in. Another, Mike Waltz (Florida), joined Trump’s White House and then got confirmed as U.N. ambassador.
Another, Doug LaMalfa (California), died Tuesday.
Unlike the Senate, the Constitution prohibits temporary appointments to replace members of the House, and each state has its own rules for timing special elections. Replacing members can take months.
Over the past 12 months, Johnson has had a full allotment of the 220 Republicans who won in November 2024 for just 3½ months.
If not for three deaths and a resignation on their side of the aisle, Democrats could have possibly defeated a few more GOP bills.
On Jan. 31, almost 11 months after the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), Houston voters will elect a new congressman (two Democrats will meet in a runoff), and that will shrink the GOP’s majority 218-214.
The disgruntlement among GOP rank-and-file members reached such a fever pitch that Republican leaders have delivered a message that no one else should resign in the middle of this term.
“Yes, yes, we did,” Scalise said.
Trump’s first choice for U.N. ambassador, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York), had her nomination pulled in March. If confirmed by the Senate, her seat would have sat vacant for about five months just as House Republicans were trying to pass their massive domestic policy bill, which passed the Houseby a single vote and then by two votes in July after changes were made by the Senate.
With a few more resignations or vacancies caused by death or incapacitation, Republicans risk suffering the same fate that befell them during the Hoover administration.
In the 1930 midterm elections, Republicans eked out the narrowest possible majority, with 218 seats. But 14 members died before swearing-in day for the start of the 72nd Congress. With President Herbert Hoover deeply unpopular because of the Great Depression, Democrats claimed the majority by winning enough of the special elections.
Neither party’s leadership expects the current majority to change hands in that manner, but these vacancies can cause headaches for both parties.
Johnson can afford two defections from his side when he tries to pass legislation without any Democratic support — that will shrink to one after the Texas winner is seated in early February.
And that’s if every lawmaker is on Capitol Hill voting.
Democrats have been lecturing their rank and file about the importance of maximum attendance and getting to the House floor on time.
“When we have important votes that affect the American public, we expect members to be here — we expect members to be here on time,” Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-California), the No. 3 in caucus leadership, told reporters Wednesday.
That point was highlighted during a chaotic procedural vote last month that Republicans won by gaveling it shut before more than two dozen lawmakers had voted.
If Jeffries had succeeded in defeating the motion, he would have been allowed to offer a Democratic plan to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years, an issue at the center of congressional debate since last fall.
Republicans trailed for a long stretch of the roll call, which, as often happens, went over the 15-minute time limit.
Some GOP rank and file from politically competitive districts were wavering and had yet to vote. Once Republicans edged ahead in the tally, 204-203, GOP leaders ordered the vote to end.
All told, 16 Republicans and 10 Democrats missed that vote.
Aguilar said all members of the caucus know they have to be on hand, even those running campaigns for Senate or governor in far-off states including California, Illinois and Minnesota.
“We want to ensure that when we have legislation that matters to the American public, that we are here, and we are present,” Aguilar said Wednesday.
Scalise said absences are sometimes unavoidable — Rep. Jim Baird (R-Indiana) is still recovering from a serious car accident — and others come from unfortunately timed medical appointments.
“Everything from absences to somebody having a regular procedure where they’re going to be out for a few days — that could impact the floor schedule,” he said.
At least two days in 2024, when Republicans held fewer than 220 seats, they fell into minority status because so many GOP lawmakers skipped a round of noncontroversial votes at the start of a legislative week. The rules do not allow much room for the actual minority party to do too much in such an instance other than adjourning the chamber earlier than usual.
Their 220-215 majority resulting from the 2024 elections was the third straight that voters left the two parties within single digits of each other — a first since the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Congresses in the 1790s.
In 2021-2022, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) guided her caucus through a very productive 117th Congress, after voters gave Democrats a 222-213 majority that got smaller after several members joined the Biden administration.
But from the start of the 118th Congress, when it took House Republicans 15 votes to elect their speaker, until the past few days, unity has been hard to achieve, and a lot of legislation has been left hanging in the balance.
“We have to work overtime to make sure that our vote coalition is strong and that we stay unified. Staying unified is how we’ve gotten big things done,” Scalise said.
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