The “AI 2027” website is out of date. Last year, to great fanfare, it warned that 2027 would be the “modal” year in which artificial intelligence would reach superintelligence. At that point, AI could “dictate humanity’s future,” an individual who controls AI could “seize total power” and AI “might develop unintended, adversarial ‘misaligned’ goals, leading to human disempowerment.” Frightening stuff.
One of its authors has recalibrated. Daniel Kokotajlo, who worked for OpenAI, now says superintelligence could happen “around 2030,” though he has “lots of uncertainty.” His updated forecast sets 2034 as the new horizon for “superintelligence” and does not contain a guess for when AI may destroy humanity.
Alas, this civilizational reprieve is not without downsides: The Social Security old-age trust fund is still projected to run out in 2033. At least on the 2027 timeline, that problem would have taken care of itself.
Predicting the end of the world and then having to rework those predictions when events intervene is a venerable American tradition. The Great Disappointment happened on October 22, 1844, when Jesus Christ did not return to Earth as popular preacher William Miller predicted. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has been counting down the seconds to a “midnight” of global disaster since 1947. As with these and other examples, most people will ignore the AI doomsday scenarios while devoted groups of followers will be convinced of their accuracy and may turn despondent as they do not come to pass.
The moderation of Kokotajlo’s AI predictions is a sign of the technology’s growing acceptance and incorporation into the U.S. economy. It’s not a shock to the system anymore. As more people use the technology for everyday tasks and understand its strengths and weaknesses, super-positive and super-negative predictions will both look sillier.
Alternatively, if the doomsday scenario comes true, at least nobody will be around to read this editorial again.
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