Russia is reeling from the capture of Nicolás Maduro, a key Kremlin ally, but in Moscow, President Donald Trump’s brazen incursion into Venezuela also represents a return to great-power politics — a world order in which larger, imperialistic states dominate their regional spheres of influence with impunity.
The Kremlin is cautiously watching America’s effort to seize control in Caracas, including the risk of a sustained drop in oil prices that could damage Russia economically if the United States succeeds and, on the upside, the prospect that Washington could be dragged into prolonged conflict in Latin America if it does not, analysts said.
In either scenario, however, Maduro’s toppling helps Russia by distracting global attention from its aggression in Ukraine and from President Vladimir Putin’s refusal so far to embrace Trump’s peace initiative. It also stands to embolden Putin in asserting his own sphere of dominance in Ukraine and across the former Soviet bloc.
“What happened is to some degree a confirmation of the Russian view that the liberal order is ending and in its place a global order based on spheres of influence is emerging,” said a Russian academic close to senior Russian diplomats.
The U.S. has “its own backyard, and Trump is returning to the Monroe Doctrine,” said the academic, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive geopolitics. “We can’t support this, of course, but we must deal with the reality. And of course in this case we will have even more basis to lay claim to our own sphere of influence close to our borders.”
The precision and effectiveness of Trump’s military operation, however, also confront Putin with the sobering reality that the United States — the Russian leader’s long-proclaimed superpower nemesis — is far better equipped to dominate on the world stage and, in recent months, has emerged with a stronger hand in many places where the Kremlin once claimed allies or acted as a patron and protector: in Syria, in Iran, in the Caucasus and now in the Caribbean.
In the months running up to Saturday’s operation, Russia repeatedly pledged its “full support” to Caracas, its most important ally in Latin America and the Western Hemisphere. That Moscow appeared to watch, paralyzed, from the sidelines as Trump’s commandos removed Maduro — and then issued tepid, hypocritical statements accusing Trump of breaching “all norms of international law” — only underscored Putin’s predicament.
“After Syria, it doesn’t look good for Russia in terms of demonstrating they can protect their allies,” a European official said, also speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.
The notably muted response probably also reflects discomfort among political and security officials in Moscow with the lightning speed and success of the operation, which provided a stark contrast to Russia’s failed attempt to invade Kyiv and oust President Volodymyr Zelensky in early 2022.
Sergey Markov, a pro-Russian commentator, said the Kremlin has remained silent, both out of shock at Trump’s brazenness and the efficiency of the U.S. security services, and to watch and prepare for what comes next in Venezuela, in particular whether acting president Delcy Rodríguez will bend to U.S. demands and if Russia might seek to leverage its own connections to further destabilize the situation.
“Many will want Venezuela to become a second Vietnam for America,” Markov said.
The Russian academic added, “If all of a sudden the U.S. becomes mired in a serious war there, then of course additional possibilities will appear to use this vulnerability and somehow balance out the U.S. presence in Ukraine.”
Moscow also stands to lose a lot from Maduro’s capture. A key member, along with Russia, of the expanded oil cartel OPEC+, Venezuela is one of the few countries that recognized Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
Russia has extended billions of dollars in loans to Venezuela, and they are unlikely to be repaid. High-profile projects between the two countries have continued to roll out, including a Kalashnikov munitions factory that opened last summer in the Venezuelan state of Aragua, about 20 years after it was first announced. Moscow also has exploration rights for potentially billions of dollars in untapped natural gas and oil reserves.
It was only a few months ago that Maduro requested Russia’s help in his standoff with the United States. In a direct letter to Putin, the Venezuelan leader asked for defensive radars, drones, aircraft repairs and missiles, according to internal U.S. documents obtained by The Washington Post.
Russia’s parliament had just ratified a vaguely worded security partnership agreement with Venezuela — signed by Putin and Maduro during a visit by the Venezuelan to Moscow last May — which promised to strengthen cooperation in political and economic spheres, energy, mineral extraction, security, and counterterrorism.
But as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine grinds toward its fifth year, the country’s flailing economy is under increased pressure from a slew of new sanctions, and analysts say Moscow has gradually reduced its interest in Venezuela with little sign that it increased its support in recent months. “For Russia, of course, the Ukrainian crisis is much more important than the Venezuelan crisis,” Markov said.
This same lack of response has been felt by other key Kremlin allies — including Syria, Iran and Armenia — that also relied on Moscow’s support. The ousted Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has lived in Moscow since fleeing Damascus in December 2024, and Armenia, in August, signed a peace framework with Azerbaijan, its longtime enemy, at the White House, with Trump grinning like a proud parent. The framework also gave the U.S. rights to manage and develop the long-contested Zangezur corridor, a key strategic link in the region.
These developments underscored how preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, and hundreds of thousands of casualties, have diminished Russia’s capabilities as an ally.
For decades, Moscow, Beijing and Tehran had served as lifelines for Caracas, as Maduro and Hugo Chávez before him adopted policies against the U.S. and helped extend Russia’s, China’s and Iran’s influence in their region.
Russia had long supplied weapons including aircraft and air defenses to Venezuela, and in 2019 and 2024 the Wagner paramilitary group deployed to Venezuela to bolster the country’s security.
The nationalist, pro-Kremlin author Zakhar Prilepin is one of the few prominent voices so far to publicly question Moscow’s failure to support Venezuela in its time of need.
“The USA is pure evil. And we continue to negotiate with evil,” Prilepin wrote on Telegram. “Who is condemning what happened to Maduro around the world? Most of all — leftist and communist parties, including in Europe. But they won’t even tell you about this in Russia.”
“Generally, it would seem that the progressive forces of the whole world — meaning, we, China, North Korea and the entire BRICS — should already show a diplomatic grin and protect the sovereignty of Venezuela?” he continued.
Members of the Russian elite also appeared to be nervous about the possibility that a U.S. takeover of Venezuela’s significant oil resources will cause a prolonged drop in oil prices and raise the pressure on Russia’s economy.
“If our American ‘partners’ reach Venezuela’s oil fields … then more than half of the world’s oil reserves will wind up under their control,” one of Russia’s most powerful billionaires, Oleg Deripaska, wrote on Telegram. “And clearly their plan is to make sure that the price of our oil does not climb over $50 per barrel.”
Deripaska added, “This means that it will be difficult for our sacred state capitalism to maintain everything as it is.”
Even with Maduro removed, Moscow may be able to preserve its interests in Venezuela, the Russian academic said. “If the Chavez model will be preserved in one form or another, then it’s not excluded that the cooperation that has been going on for many years will continue,” he said.
Others including pro-war Russian bloggers, however, have made clear their envy and frustration over an operation many regard as echoing Putin’s botched “three day” special military operation, when he invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Many are asking how the U.S. succeeded where Russia failed.
“We will be envious, Comrade Beria,” Margarita Simonyan, the pro-Kremlin head of RT, posted on Telegram, invoking a phrase used by the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the “Two Majors” Telegram channel, which has close ties to the Russian military. “Most likely, this is exactly how our ‘special military operation’ was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years,” the channel added, referring to Russia’s chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov.
Military blogger Alexander Karatsky recalled Russian troops’ viral capture of a raccoon from a zoo in southern Ukraine. “The Americans kidnapped Maduro, but we kidnapped a raccoon from Kherson,” Karatsky posted. “We need to appreciate the little things.”
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