As Ukraine peace talks have stretched on for nearly a year, through fits and spurts and dozens of rounds, President Volodymyr Zelensky has accentuated the positive. The talks are now “90 percent complete,” he said. Ukraine works every minute to end the war, he insisted.
But in recent days, with the question mark of Russia’s willingness to accept any deal still hanging over the negotiations, Mr. Zelensky has made some of his most skeptical comments in months. Ukraine, he said, is simultaneously talking and preparing for the war to rage on.
“I do not want and will not wait another six months hoping that maybe it will work,” Mr. Zelensky told journalists in Kyiv over the weekend. “There are two paths: The first priority is ending the war, the second is being prepared for negative steps by Russia — for its unwillingness to end the war.”
For now, Ukraine, the United States and Europe continue to talk among themselves. On Tuesday, European leaders will hold a summit in Paris focused on commitments to guarantee Ukraine’s postwar security. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled a scheduled appearance, as the United States’ ouster of Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, risked a diplomatic and military distraction from the American-led peace efforts in Ukraine.
Why the new skepticism?
Mr. Zelensky’s 90 percent figure for progress in the talks did not budge after a long-awaited meeting with President Trump in Florida last month, suggesting a lack of progress.
Ukraine and the United States have yet to reach agreement on territorial issues and on control of a Russian-occupied nuclear power plant. Kyiv and Washington have drawn up a rough outline for security guarantees, but crucial questions remain unresolved, and progress has been plodding.
On top of that, Russia has flatly rejected some Ukrainian proposals. “I understand that we are very close to results, but at some point, Russia may block everything,” Mr. Zelensky said.
He has cast a recent reshuffle of his government and security apparatus as necessary to build Ukraine’s resilience in case talks fail. The shake-up included appointing a general, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of military intelligence in Ukraine, as the new presidential chief of staff.
The overhaul also included reassigning a deputy foreign minister, Serhiy Kyslytsia, as deputy chief of staff. The moves, Mr. Zelensky said, reflected Ukraine’s determination to maintain two primary tracks: pursuing talks while preparing for a drawn-out war.
What’s next on security guarantees?
A draft of the peace plan described by Mr. Zelensky in December said that the United States, NATO, European nations and other allies would provide Ukraine with so-called Article 5-like guarantees. That is a reference to the mutual defense commitment in the NATO alliance.
Ukraine is negotiating with about 30 countries in a so-called Coalition of the Willing that have signaled a willingness to deploy forces in Ukraine or assist the Ukrainian military with weaponry and intelligence after any cease-fire.
Mr. Zelensky met on Saturday with national security advisers from 18 of those countries. He and more than two dozen other leaders plan to meet on Tuesday in Paris, along with the Trump administration representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
The Ukrainian leader has acknowledged that not all of the countries in the Coalition of the Willing will agree to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine. But for Kyiv to agree to lay down its arms, he said, it would be “mandatory” for the coalition’s two leaders, France and Britain, to send in troops.
Mr. Zelensky said he hoped that the framework for a security force could be in place by the end of January, when he is seeking a meeting in Washington that would include European leaders.
Ultimately, though, this discussion may be moot. Russia is unlikely to agree to a deal with such peacekeeping provisions, saying it opposes any presence by NATO troops in Ukraine.
What are other big sticking points?
Also unresolved is where a new boundary would fall in eastern Ukraine, with Russia demanding that Kyiv withdraw from the roughly 20 percent of the Donetsk region that it still controls.
Under an earlier plan negotiated between the United States and Russia, this area would become a demilitarized zone under Russian control. Mr. Zelensky has proposed a compromise that would require Russia to withdraw a similar distance from the current front line there.
Russian forces are advancing in the area, including with the capture last month of the city of Siversk, weakening Mr. Zelensky’s negotiating leverage on a future boundary.
What are Ukraine’s options if talks falter?
The United States, Mr. Zelensky said, could hasten a settlement by backing up talks with sanctions and military aid for Ukraine, to raise the price on Russia for holding out.
But Ukraine, he said, has no other option than U.S.-led negotiations. Any European effort to step in as mediators would only extend the talks, he said.
“A lot has already been developed, and we must respect the work of people and respect time, because every minute, people in Ukraine suffer,” Mr. Zelensky said. “That is why I believe there is no alternative.”
Andrew E. Kramer is the Kyiv bureau chief for The Times, who has been covering the war in Ukraine since 2014.
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