The sudden death of Representative Doug LaMalfa, Republican of California, cast a pall over the first day of the new session of Congress on Tuesday, when House Republicans mourned their colleague and also watched their tiny majority dwindle to the bare minimum of 218 votes.
The passing of Mr. LaMalfa, 65, who died during an emergency surgery, came on the same day that the resignation of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia took effect. That left Speaker Mike Johnson able to afford just two defections on any party-line vote, if all members are present — and in an election year, they seldom are.
It was the latest blow to Mr. Johnson’s already weak grip on a demoralized House Republican conference as the party anxiously looks toward midterm elections in which their control of the chamber is at stake. Lawmakers who are fearful of losing the majority have complained openly about his leadership, calling him a habitual liar and routinely circumventing him to bring legislation he does not want to hold a vote on to the floor.
President Trump defended Mr. Johnson on Tuesday, but acknowledged the increasingly punishing math in the House that makes his job challenging.
“A lot of times they’ll say, ‘I wish Mike were tougher,’” Mr. Trump said while addressing House Republicans at a one-day party retreat at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. “He’s tough. He’s tough as anybody in the room, actually. But can’t be tough when you have a majority of three, and now sadly, a little bit less than that.”
In the weeks to come, it will indeed be less than that. A disproportionately large number of Republican lawmakers in the House are running for statewide offices this year, meaning that they are checked out of Washington and prioritizing time at home.
To name just a few: Representative Chip Roy of Texas is running for attorney general; Representative Nancy Mace of South Carolina is running for governor; Representatives Andy Biggs and David Schweikert of Arizona are running against each other for governor; Representative Wesley Hunt of Texas is running for Senate; and Representatives Earl L. Carter and Mike Collins are both running in the Republican primary for Senate in Georgia.
On top of that, many incumbents are fending off viable primary challengers, which has House leaders bracing for poor attendance at the beginning of the week when members will have to be home for those elections.
That is in addition to the regular pace of absences that are simply a fact of life when members are dealing with illnesses, travel delays, weddings, funerals and unforeseen life events, for which congressional leaders typically need a cushion of votes to account for.
On Tuesday, for example, another Republican, Representative Jim Baird of Indiana, was absent because he was hospitalized after a serious car accident.
Mr. Johnson also has to contend with the immovable object that is Representative Thomas Massie, Republican of Kentucky, who often breaks with his party on key votes and has proved to be so impervious to pressure that Republican leaders and Mr. Trump himself no longer bother to whip his vote.
Making matters more stressful for Republicans, there appears to be no relief on the horizon.
In fact, their situation is poised to get worse.
Democrats are expected to fill two vacancies in the coming months: On Jan. 31, there will be a runoff in Texas’ 18th District to fill the seat of former Representative Sylvester Turner, a Democrat who died in March. And on April 16, New Jersey will hold a general election to fill the seat of former Representative Mikie Sherrill, who was elected governor, in a solidly blue district.
Gov. Brian Kemp, Republican of Georgia, said on Tuesday that he would hold a special election on March 10 to fill Ms. Greene’s seat, although a runoff could potentially push a result off until April.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom is required by law to announce a special election to fill Mr. LaMalfa’s seat within the next two weeks.
Despite all of that, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, an ally of Mr. Johnson’s, said he expected the beleaguered speaker to exceed expectations this year, as Republicans seek to keep the government funded and deliver a solution on a heated fight over health care costs in the midterm election year.
“It has been virtually impossible for Speaker Johnson to pass anything with just Republican votes for the entire time he has been speaker and he just goes ahead and does it anyway,” Mr. Gingrich said, conceding that the president had much to do with that. “I suspect that will be true all year.”
Democrats said on Tuesday that they were also concerned about their own attendance issues. They said there would be pressure on Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, to corral his entire caucus to be in attendance for major votes.
Representative Eric Swalwell, Democrat of California, is running for governor and has often been absent in recent months. Representative Jerrold Nadler, the retiring New York Democrat, has had family health issues and has rarely been seen in the Capitol. And Representative Frederica S. Wilson, Democrat of Florida, is also often absent.
But a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Justin Chermol, predicted that the complications would land more heavily on Mr. Johnson’s shoulders.
The speaker’s “year of epic failure is getting worse as rank-and-file Republicans openly contest his leadership, defy his orders and brace for a midterm wipeout,” he said.
With attendance issues at the forefront, many veterans of the House said they expected the place to be virtually ungovernable this year. Typically, that is when chaos festers most.
“Without action,” said former Representative Patrick McHenry, Republican of North Carolina, “the House descends into more internal majority-party dissent.”
Annie Karni is a congressional correspondent for The Times.
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