Among his various justifications for removing President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela from office, President Trump has talked about taking control of the country’s oil supply.
Who will benefit from this? Maybe American oil companies that had their operations seized in 2007. Perhaps Chevron, the only U.S. producer active in Venezuela today. Beyond that narrow list, the answer isn’t immediately obvious.
Given the current dynamics of the global oil market, American consumers might not see meaningful near-term benefits. And big oil companies don’t seem to be rushing to take advantage.
There are at least two reasons U.S. oil producers may not move quickly on Venezuela’s vast oil reserves: price and certainty. Even before the weekend’s drama, American companies were pessimistic, according to a December survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve, with some noting a lack of clarity about America’s economic outlook and low prices that make it uneconomical to operate certain wells.
Only about a third of respondents said they plan to increase capital spending in the year ahead, while only 20 percent said they expect to increase personnel. Higher prices would make it relatively easier for oil producers to take risks with new exploration. But with prices holding steady or possibly slipping, as the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration expects, oil majors are unlikely to have much confidence in new ventures.
Adding to their caution, Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is creaking and inefficient. The country claims to have more than 300 billion barrels in the ground, the largest known reserves of oil of any country, but produces only about one million barrels a day, or around 1 percent of global production. Much of its oil is also a type that is extra polluting and expensive to process.
That means that a decision to invest the billions required to rebuild the infrastructure needed to capitalize on these reserves would require not only prices high enough to make a return, but also clarity on the ground. Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976 and Chevron has been the only U.S. producer to maintain a consistent presence in the country. While it could certainly increase production over the course of this year, other companies will have a more difficult decision to make. Is the potential financial return attractive enough to offset the risk of future change in Venezuela’s leadership — or in U.S. policy — and is it more compelling than other opportunities, including within the United States?
If we assume somehow the Venezuelan oil machine cranks up again, more supply could help push down oil prices over the coming years. This has already been happening. Brent crude oil prices, the global oil benchmark, fell nearly 19 percent in 2025. And well before the military action in Caracas, the Energy Information Administration published forecasts for even lower crude oil prices in 2026. It expects another year where increased global oil supplies outstrip demand growth, leading to Brent prices falling to an average of $55 a barrel, about 10 percent below the roughly $61 a barrel on Friday.
This path forward for crude oil suggests lower gasoline prices, which means consumers will have more cash for other purchases. That’s especially good news when the affordability of many day-to-day expenses like groceries, housing and health care has become a major source of worry for Americans.
Still, it makes sense to temper one’s optimism. Lower prices at the pump are likely to be incremental rather than dramatic. Gasoline prices tend to fall less and more slowly than crude oil prices, in part as they also incorporate costs such as taxes and transportation. Last year, when Brent crude prices fell by nearly 19 percent, retail gasoline prices came down by only 8 percent, albeit with significant differentiation across the country.
Lower oil prices would potentially mean lower inflation, which could marginally increase the odds of additional interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The central bank officially targets inflation without incorporating food and energy prices, since those can be volatile. In reality, though, the Fed keeps a close eye on energy inflation, knowing it can influence inflation expectations and, ultimately, actual inflation. A Fed rule of thumb is that a permanent 10 percent decrease in the price of crude oil can lower core inflation by roughly one-tenth of a percentage point over the following one to two years.
Of course, there are many other variables that will influence inflation in the year ahead, and the central bank is highly unlikely to make any change before having ample data showing how oil prices flow through to the broader economy. Financial markets already expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, double the Fed’s own forecast published in December. Caution again seems sensible.
For inflation and Fed expectations to meaningfully change on the back of Mr. Maduro’s ouster, we need to see oil producers quickly and meaningfully respond to the scenario outlined in Mr. Trump’s weekend news conference, when he said that U.S. oil giants would spend billions of dollars to fix Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and start making money. That requires confidence that domestic politics in Venezuela will be calm and that relations with the United States will also be stable and productive.
This scenario doesn’t seem very likely, in the near term at least. For the time being, the biggest winner of the leadership change in Venezuela may not be American consumers or oil producers but instead the U.S. government itself — if it can successfully gain more access to Venezuelan oil production, and all the geopolitical influence that comes with it.
Rebecca Patterson is an economist and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who has held senior positions at JPMorgan Chase and Bridgewater Associates.
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