Donald Trump’s administration must take action now so as to avoid a “messy free-for-all” in Venezuela, a geopolitical analysist has warned.
Irina Tsukerman says the weeks following the arrest of Nicolas Maduro will need to be managed intensely by the Trump administration as the mood in Venezuela could “flip to anger” fast. Speaking to The Mirror US, Tsukerman has urged the president and his team to venture with “cautious optimism” and to focus on the “basic” necessities that could quell a possible blur of “hope and fear”.
Tsukerman said, “On the streets, hope and fear can surge together. Some people will celebrate, others will protest, and many will simply want food, safety, electricity, and wages that mean something.”
“If living conditions do not improve quickly, early optimism can flip into anger, and that is when transitions become unstable. The first weeks are usually about basic order and the price of essentials, not grand constitutional debates.”
The next few weeks will likely see a “fight over control of the state,” with a populist group named after Hugo Chavez highlighted by Tsukerman.
She said, “The most likely immediate danger is fragmentation. Chavismo is not one person. It is a network of military leadership, party loyalists, patronage structures, governors, business fixes, and security chiefs.”
“Remove the very top and you can get either a rapid internal consolidation behind a successor or messy free-for-all where factions bargain, threaten, and deflect in real time… most transitions end up with uncomfortable bargains.”
Tsukerman’s comments come after Trump confirmed Venezuela would see its oil infrastructure rebuilt under American supervision. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Trump had the right to “act against imminent and urgent threats” and that the administration had placed an “oil quarantine” on Venezuela.
He said, “…[President Trump] does not feel like he is going to publicly rule out options that are available for the United States, even though that’s not what you’re seeing right now. What you’re seeing right now is an oil quarantine that allows us to exert tremendous leverage over what happens next.”
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