Millions of people around the world, most of all in Venezuela, are celebrating the downfall of the dictator Nicolás Maduro. President Donald Trump’s decision to capture him on Saturday is one of the boldest moves a president has made in years, and the operation was an unquestionable tactical success. The next step is ensuring that this triumph sets Venezuela up for stability rather than chaos.
Details are still emerging, but what happened in Caracas was a clear reminder that America’s military and intelligence capabilities are second to none. Airstrikes on several locations in Venezuela preceded the capture of Maduro and his wife by members of the U.S. Army’s elite Delta Force. The couple has been extradited to the U.S., where they will face narcoterrorism, weapons and drug charges in Manhattan. Miraculously, there were no American casualties, although some U.S. service members were injured and one helicopter was damaged.
This is a major victory for American interests. Just hours before, supportive Chinese officials held a chummy meeting with Maduro, who had also been propped up by Russia, Cuba and Iran. No doubt millions of Venezuelans will remember who backed their oppressor and who effected his removal. The end of Maduro will be a failure if it doesn’t also corrode the influence of American adversaries in this hemisphere.
Maduro’s removal also sends an important message to tinpot dictators in Latin America and the world: Trump follows through. President Joe Biden offered sanctions relief to Venezuela, and Maduro responded to that show of weakness by stealing an election.
Trump had telegraphed for months that Maduro could not remain in power, yet Venezuela’s arrogantly illegitimate leader clung on. What are Iranian leaders thinking now as they consider how to respond to widespread anti-government protests? Are the communists in Cuba sleeping well?
The natural question is what comes next.
The ideal outcome would be for María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and leader of the Venezuelan opposition, to take power. Her Freedom Manifesto – influenced heavily by America’s Constitution – is the best outline for Venezuela’s future. The details would be tricky, but she would easily win a free and fair election. She told us late last year that “this is not regime change. We voted. We mandated a change of the regime a year-and-a-half ago under absolutely unjust and extreme conditions.”
The ideal outcome is far from guaranteed, and several bad outcomes remain distinct possibilities.
The first is that another anti-American dictator easily succeeds Maduro, and the country continues on its present course. That’s a legitimate concern, though any Cuban-trained Venezuelan general debating whether to take Maduro’s job will need to consider whether he might also be kidnapped and charged. It’s not like the last guy had lax security.
The second bad outcome would be if the country falls into total chaos. It’s not hard to imagine various armed groups taking control of swaths of the country amid the power vacuum. This would make the refugee crisis caused by Maduro and his predecessor look relatively tame. Although Venezuela is often compared to Libya, that’s unfair to the millions of Venezuelans who remember living in a relatively prosperous and democratic society not long ago.
Trump offered Maduro plenty of off-ramps. He could have retired and lived a luxury lifestyle in Moscow or Minsk. Instead, he will probably die in prison. It’s an all-time miscalculation. But that raises another possibility: a former Maduro regime figure takes power and offers an olive branch to the U.S.
Some in the Trump administration would be fine with this, essentially believing that anything is better than Maduro. Perhaps, but anyone from the current regime would be tainted by their association and likely would retain links to American adversaries. Any short-term thawing of relations would be a risk. It’d be better to offer high-level figures amnesty, and a life abroad, if they help with the democratic transition.
There are also legitimate legal questions about the operation, though Maduro was viewed as a criminal by both Trump and Biden, who raised the reward to $25 million for information leading to his arrest. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) said Secretary of State Marco Rubio called him Saturday to say that Trump had the right to act as commander-in-chief. No doubt this debate will continue, and it’s good for democratic hygiene to scrutinize the decision.
With tough decisions coming and many obstacles ahead, it’s fair to look forward. Yet it’s also fair to celebrate. For years, Maduro was a symbol of the false warmth of Latin American collectivism. Now he should spend the rest of his life alone in a humane American prison. His downfall is good news.
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