Tesla had a surprise Christmas present for investors this year: more bad news about its EV business.
Elon Musk’s automaker published a press release on Monday with a consensus of analyst predictions for the company’s latest quarterly sales, the first time it has publicly given Wall Street such a heads-up.
The delivery consensus, which is a compilation of predictions from analysts selected by Tesla, estimated that the EV giant sold 422,850 vehicles in the last three months of 2025, around 14.6% fewer than the same period last year.
That’s lower than Wall Street’s wider expectations. Analysts were expecting Tesla to sell 440,907 EVs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
It’s also a surprising move from Tesla, which typically does not issue public communications ahead of critical sales announcements.
Tesla, which is expected to report its latest quarterly sales as soon as Friday, did not respond to a request for comment.
“This is highly unusual for Tesla to send out a press release with quarterly consensus delivery estimates,” said Gary Black, managing partner at Future Fund, which sold its Tesla holdings in May.
Black wrote in the Tuesday post on X that the release suggested Tesla’s Q4 sales were lower than the Bloomberg consensus and were, in his view, likely closer to 420,000.
Investors remain bullish
Tesla’s stock price hit a record high this month amid investor optimism over the company’s robotaxi push, but the Cybertruck maker’s core EV business has had a difficult year.
Tesla was hit hard by the collapse in electric car sales after the $7,500 federal tax credit expired in September.
The company’s US sales reportedly fell to their lowest level since 2022 in November, despite the launch of cheaper versions of Tesla’s bestselling Model 3 and Y EVs.
Things haven’t gone much better outside the US. Tesla has been buffeted by fierce competition from local rivals in China, where an army of EV startups has rolled out high-tech electric vehicles at rock-bottom prices.
In Europe, meanwhile, the US automaker’s sales have collapsed nearly 30% so far this year amid backlash over Musk’s political interventions.
The slump has left Tesla facing a race against time to avoid its second consecutive annual sales decline.
Tesla has rolled out a range of incentives in the US and is pushing to introduce its Full Self-Driving tech in China and Europe, but the surprise delivery consensus estimated that Tesla will end the year having sold over 100,000 fewer EVs than in 2024.
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