In the grand scheme of awards season, we’re still in a preliminary phase. Sure, the Academy has narrowed the field to shortlists in 12 categories, the American Film Institute and National Board of Review have announced their picks for the year’s best films and the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes have revealed their nominations. But the major groups that are made up of filmmakers and film professionals rather than critics and academics have yet to chime in, which means you can’t totally trust the results you’ve seen so far.
And yet if you look at the polls and prognosticators, the field seems to be narrowing precipitously. If you look at TheWrap’s Awards Tracker, which draws on historical data over the last 25 years, only 12 films are making a serious run at Best Picture: “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Sinners” and “Sentimental Value” with a 88% chance of landing a nomination, “One Battle After Another,” “Marty Supreme” and “Bugonia” with a 68% chance and “It Was Just an Accident,” “Jay Kelly,” “The Secret Agent,” “Train Dreams” and “Wicked: For Good” battling for the last three spots.
(Personally, I’d bump “Bugonia” down to that last category, because I think it’s a film likely to be more beloved by critics than industry voters.)
And the acting categories are similarly focused. Awards Tracker, which at this point is using results from the Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, lists 16 possible contenders for Best Actor, only six of whom have more than 40% probability of a nomination; 13 contenders for Best Actress, six with more than 30% probability; 13 for Best Supporting Actor, with six over 85% and the other seven below 12%; and 16 for Best Supporting Actress, only five above 50%.
With the Screen Actors Guild not revealing nominations for its freshly-renamed Actor Awards until Jan. 7, it seems early to have the acting categories narrowed that severely. But let’s look at those four categories one by one, using Awards Tracker but also GoldDerby and other predictions to see what history and conventional wisdom is saying.
Spoiler alert: The odds don’t look particularly good for big surprises in these races. But if SAG throws a couple of curveballs on Jan. 7, who knows?
Best Actor
Consensus nominees: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”; Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”; Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
On the bubble: Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams”; Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Possibilities: George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”; Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine”; Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
Thoughts: It makes sense that Chalamet, DiCaprio, Jordan and Moura are favorites, assuming that enough voters see “The Secret Agent.” The battle between Edgerton and Hawke for the last slot has lately been leaning toward Hawke, though this is another case where the key might be whether “Blue Moon” is seen by enough people. (If you ask me, Edgerton’s and Hawke’s performances – one quiet, one manic and both wrenching – richly deserve to be nominated.)
Surprise I’d like to see: Clooney, because “Jay Kelly” doesn’t even begin to work without a guy who can embody every degree of stardom as effortlessly as he does.
Best Actress
Consensus nominees: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”; Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”; Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”; Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
On the bubble: Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”; Emma Stone, “Bugonia”; Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
Possibilities: Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”; Jennifer Lawrence, “Die My Love”; Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
Thoughts: Is Byrne a lock for a nomination or a borderline case from a movie that’s too tough and off-putting for some voters? Probably the former, but “If I Had Legs” is definitely a critics pet of sorts. For the final spot, I’d go for Seyfried but voters have a history of loving Stone in Yorgos Lanthimos movies … although we may be underestimating the pleasures of Hudson in a distinctly crowd-pleasing movie.
Surprise I’d like to see: Seyfried. In a year of unhinged performances, hers is the only one that includes singing and dancing.
Best Supporting Actor
Consensus nominees: Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”; Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”; Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”; Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
On the bubble: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”; Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly”
Possibilities: Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly”; Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Thoughts: You can cry about Lindo getting snubbed again, but Mescal, Skarsgård and the “One Battle” pair of del Toro and Penn seem all but inevitable, and that probably just leaves room for the monster (Elordi) or the manager (Sandler). One question, though: Could that scene in “Jay Kelly” in which Crudup breaks your heart by reading a menu actually be so great that it gets him a nom?
Surprise I’d like to see: Lindo, because it’s about damn time.
Best Supporting Actress
Consensus nominees: Ariana Grande, ”Wicked: For Good”; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”; Amy Madigan, “Weapons”; Teyana Taylor, ”One Battle After Another”
On the bubble: Elle Fanning, ”Sentimental Value”; Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Possibilities: Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine”; Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme”; Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another”; Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme”
Thoughts: Which film is going to get two nominations in this category? “Sentimental Value” seems likely to score a pair with Lilleaas and Fanning, but widespread love for “One Battle After Another” could also mean that Hall slips in. Two actresses from “Marty Supreme,” A’zion and Paltrow, are unlikelier, though the movie does have momentum.
Surprise I’d like to see: Nina Hoss, for bringing layers of pain and longing to “Hedda,” and also for pulling off the most spectacularly unflattering piece of wardrobe that anybody had to wear this year.
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