ISIS and the Bondi Beach Attack

The persistent ISIS threat

After the shooting that killed 15 people at a Hanukkah celebration on Bondi Beach last weekend, Australia’s prime minister revealed what investigators had learned so far about the shooters’ motivations: They were driven, he said, by “Islamic State ideology.”

Two homemade Islamic State flags were found in the car that police said belonged to the suspects, Sajid and Naveed Akram. The authorities say the men, a father and son, had recently traveled to the southern Philippines, an area where ISIS remains active.

ISIS once controlled a territory in Syria and Iraq larger than Portugal. It trained thousands of young jihadists and inspired many to carry out a steady stream of terrorist attacks throughout the mid-2010s. Some were carried out by people who received training from the group. Others came from so-called lone wolf attacks that were inspired by the group’s extremist ideology.

As I wrote last month, Islamist attacks in the West succeed less frequently today. By 2017 the group had lost almost all its territory, and with it, seemingly, the capacity to execute sophisticated operations that once killed dozens of people at a time.

So what does it mean that ISIS has once again been linked to a deadly attack? I turned to some of my colleagues to understand the group’s persistent influence, despite its decline.

A familiar pattern

The mass shooting in Bondi Beach matches the patterns of many ISIS-inspired attacks. From its inception in 2013, ISIS has ordered its followers to target gatherings of non-Muslims and maximize casualties using whatever means are available, my colleague Lizzie Dearden wrote.

It has long asked followers to target countries, like Australia, that joined the U.S. in bombing ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria. Peter Neumann, a terrorism expert at King’s College London, told me that in the last two years, the war in Gaza has also become a radicalizing force.

Despite the presence of ISIS flags, we don’t yet know if the Bondi Beach shooters interacted with ISIS or what their motivation was. The connections between the group and its adherents are often ambiguous. But ISIS tells followers that they don’t need permission for an attack, Lizzie writes, only that they should “leave behind evidence or insignia” to indicate who inspired them.

A trip to the Philippines

The authorities say the Akrams recently traveled to Davao in the southern Philippines, where an ISIS affiliate still has influence. It’s a region where Muslim insurgents have long sought to carve out an independent state, according to my colleagues Jason Gutierrez and Sui-Lee Wee.

In 2017, fighters linked to ISIS besieged the city of Marawi for five months. The Philippines unleashed a massive assault to unseat them. Even after the group was routed, attacks have continued. In 2023, militants detonated an explosive device during a Catholic Mass at Mindanao State University in Marawi, killing four and injuring dozens.

Australian investigators say the Bondi Beach suspects traveled to the region in early November and stayed for about a month. They are just beginning to examine what the Akrams were doing there.

Dangerous affiliates

ISIS’s presence in its main former stronghold — territory straddling Syria and Iraq — has been much diminished. But it never disappeared entirely.

A suicide bomber who appeared to have ties to the group attacked a Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus over the summer, killing at least 20.

This weekend, a member of Syria’s security forces opened fire on U.S. forces, killing two soldiers and an American civilian interpreter.

We still know very little about the gunman and his motivations. President Trump said the attack had been carried out by the Islamic State, without citing evidence. A Syrian government spokesman said the gunman held “extremist” views. ISIS has not claimed responsibility.

Experts told me the fact that ISIS no longer holds the territory it once did means the group’s ability to plan large-scale attacks is vastly diminished.

But the Akrams’ trip to the Philippines may hint at the importance of smaller patches of territory where ISIS still holds sway. The ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-K, was behind an attack on a concert hall in Moscow last year that killed 149. The same group was linked to a planned attack on a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, which was foiled.

As one counterterrorism analyst, Colin P. Clarke, told my colleague Eric Schmitt, the Bondi Beach attack “is further proof of how dangerous the Islamic State’s affiliates still are.”

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RECIPE

These meatballs are enhanced with Parmesan and berbere seasoning, the fenugreek-and-chile-laced spice mix at the heart of Ethiopian and Eritrean cuisines. Serve them with rice and salad or vegetables.