The Next Steps for Gaza

Can the Gaza peace plan move forward?

One of the hardest things about covering the war in Gaza is that Israel does not allow any journalists in, except when accompanied by the military. But my colleagues in the region have built up a wide network of sources on all sides.

My colleague Adam Rasgon in Tel Aviv told me about a recent meeting he had with Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official in Doha. Badran told him that Hamas was prepared to discuss the future of its weapons — but only in the context of “serious” talks about three other things: a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip; a total end to Israel’s military operations in Gaza; and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem.

Adam’s reporting shows just how complex the process of moving forward with peace is shaping up to be.

Katrin: It’s been two months since the cease-fire deal was signed. What still needs to happen to move forward?

Adam: Many things still need to happen. But at the moment, the U.S., along with other members of the international community, is trying to make progress on something called an International Stabilization Force. But it’s going slowly, and no country has publicly committed to sending forces.

What are the sticking points?

The hardest part is the question of Hamas’s weapons. Israel says Gaza needs to be totally demilitarized. The Trump peace plan says that, too. And Hamas has not publicly committed to that.

The Trump plan is effectively asking Hamas to surrender, and Hamas, at least so far, has not accepted that. They’ve given up some of their leverage. They gave up all the hostages and hostage bodies except one that they’re still looking for. But disarmament is a very hot-button issue for them.

What distinguishes Hamas in Palestinian politics is that they fight Israel with weapons. It’s what makes them different from the Palestinian Authority, the internationally backed government administering parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

So in a sense, if it disarmed, Hamas would be giving up a core part of its ideology and identity. They also argue that there are people with grievances in Gaza who want to settle scores with them, so they need weapons for self-defense.

It’s a super complicated question.

Where are we at with this force?

Hamas and Palestinians and many members of the international community want to see Israel withdraw from Gaza, or at least pull back more.

But the question of Hamas’s disarmament is hovering over the whole process.

Because what exactly will the mandate of the force be? Is it going to be what Hamas wants, which is to monitor the cease-fire and provide a buffer between Israeli and Palestinian forces? Or will it be asked to enforce the demilitarization of Gaza?

None of the nations considering joining the force want their soldiers having to engage in combat with Hamas.

Do we know yet what countries plan to send soldiers?

We’ve heard a lot about Azerbaijan and Indonesia. There’s talk about Italy and other countries. Egypt’s name has been thrown around in the past. So has the United Arab Emirates.

Is there something in it for these countries?

Especially in the Middle East, this conflict has a real ripple effect. There’s definitely a desire to try to find an end to this war.

A lot of these countries also want to curry favor with Trump, and want to be seen as supporting his peace plan. But not at any price: I recently sat down with a senior Azeri official and he was quite clear. He said Azerbaijan hadn’t made a decision yet but he was clear there wasn’t an appetite to send forces to Gaza to engage in war.

So what’s next? What’s the timeline, to the extent that you can say anything about that?

So today there’s a scheduled conference focused on the International Stabilization Force taking place in Qatar. We’ve heard that conference is meant to test the waters around who’s interested in committing troops. Dozens of countries have been invited. There’s supposed to be another conference in January.

But all these big questions are still hanging over the whole process because at the end of the day, are these forces just going to be sent to stand around in parts of Gaza that are under Israel’s military control? Are they going to set the conditions on the ground for an Israeli military withdrawal? We don’t have much clarity on that.

How hopeful are you that the various parties will find a way through this?

I know the discussion of these next steps can feel boring and steeped in minutiae, but these details are really important, because it’s what will determine if all the stakeholders can find a way forward.

It could still very easily fall apart, and we might be left in a situation where Israel decides it’s in its interest to go back to war. So it is really worth paying attention to the details. Many observers argue this plan is flawed — but they also say it could be the best opportunity to achieve a longer-term truce.

Read Adam’s latest story on the peace plan here, which he wrote and reported with Natan Odenheimer and Aaron Boxerman.

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