As the House prepares for another recess, GOP leadership faces growing concern that additional members will return home and decide to forgo re-election bids, potentially jeopardizing Republican control of the chamber.
The Republican caucus is already contending with 18 House departures compared to 13 for Democrats, with indications that more resignations may be forthcoming. Even if House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) maintains his narrow majority, Republican sources warn that the internal discord driving departures could intensify.
According to reporting from Daniella Diaz and Em Luetkemeyer for NOTUS, GOP primaries in districts where Republican nominees are heavily favored may devolve into chaotic contests as candidates attempt to outdo one another in pursuit of Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) recently acknowledged the toll of the current environment: “The level of partisanship, rancor, vitriolic debate, demonizing the other side of the aisle, not willing to work across the aisle to get things done for the American people and just the overall toxic environment. There’s a lot of that in this party and the overall atmosphere.”
Republican insiders predict conditions could worsen following the next election. According to the NOTUS report, one GOP aide warned, “If a new crop of inexperienced members comes to Congress, who will likely be even more partisan than the members who are leaving, ‘things around here are going to get a lot worse.’”
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), who is leaving Congress to pursue the South Carolina governorship, sought to minimize concerns about the departures. “It’s always been floor fights and always been disagreements. This is no different,” he stated.
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