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NBC Data Guru Flags Cracks in Trump’s MAGA Base

December 14, 2025
in Media, News
NBC Data Guru Flags Cracks in Trump’s MAGA Base

A new NBC News Decision Desk Poll shows that Donald Trump might be losing his grip over his own party.

Alongside ending the year on a new low for his general approval rating, former MAGA devotees are similarly turning their backs on their shameless leader—with some no longer identifying as MAGA at all.

NBC’s chief data analyst Steve Kornacki joined Kristen Welker on Meet the Press Sunday, and shocked the anchor with his insight into the previously “unmovable” GOP voters.

NBC News Decision Desk Poll
Steve Kornacki joined Kristen Welker to go over the polling impact of a ‘tough year’ for Trump. NBC News

Kicking off the stats with what was “politically a tough ending of the year for Republicans and for President Trump,” Kornacki began with the president’s general approval rating.

The polls showed Trump at 42 percent approval, down from 45 percent in April, with the data expert explaining that “his approval rating has existed in a pretty narrow range the entire time both terms he’s been in office.”

Kornacki then got deeper into the numbers, which showed that the year has seen some clear shifts within the GOP.

NBC News Decision Desk Poll
Trump’s approval rating was down since April, but there was more bad news ‘inside his own party.’ NBC News

“I think maybe more worryingly for Trump, though, here, when you look at his approval rating—look inside his own party,” he said.

“Now, overall it’s close to a 90 percent approval rating with Republicans, but the intensity, how about this? The folks who say they don’t just approve, they strongly approve.”

The stats for “strong approval” within the Republican Party showed a wide gulf, with 70 percent of people who identified as “MAGA GOP” strongly approving their leader, compared to only 35 percent of those identifying as traditional Republicans.

NBC News Decision Desk Poll
The president made losses within his most loyal base of MAGA devotees. NBC News

“And Kristen, that’s a change from the start of the year here, with 78 percent strongly from MAGA, 38 percent traditional Republicans,” Kornacki added.

Host Welker noted: “So this is really one to watch, because historically the MAGA base has been unmovable.”

“Yeah, and one thing we should note on this too, Kristen, this is an online poll, this is looking at all adults, not just registered voters… but that’s significant, certainly, if that’s something you start seeing across the board,” Kornacki said.

NBC News Decision Desk Poll
The number of people identifying as MAGA within the GOP is also down compared to the beginning of the year. NBC News

The number cruncher moved on to MAGA itself and identified that fewer people aligned themselves with Trump now than at the beginning of the year.

“The other thing here, along these same lines, just look at the composition of the Republican Party. We asked Republicans, ‘Do you identify more with MAGA, or with just the Republican Party itself?’” he explained.

Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during a rally at the Canyon Moon Ranch festival grounds in Florence, Arizona, southeast of Phoenix, on January 15, 2022.
Welker commented that the MAGA base used to be ‘unmovable,’ with Kornacki suggesting people were ‘moving away’ from the sect. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Kornacki’s results showed that 50 percent of the party identifies as MAGA, with the other half aligning with the general GOP.

He noted that in April MAGA was seven points higher at 57 percent, but had now lost its clear majority within the Republican Party. “So moving more away from that, potentially,” Kornacki surmized.

The post NBC Data Guru Flags Cracks in Trump’s MAGA Base appeared first on The Daily Beast.

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