For most of this year, Republican members of the House of Representatives seemed to move in lockstep with President Donald Trump, not hesitating to back him on controversial measures on immigration and the economy.
But now they seem to be breaking ranks.
Some Republican members of Congress have stood up to Trump on the release of the Epstein Files, tariffs, health care subsidies, boat strikes in the Caribbean, and other issues.
They’ve voiced frustration with House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has let Trump set the agenda for Congress even as the president’s approval rating continues to decline.
Some GOP members of the House, fed up with partisan gridlock, stalled legislation, and threats of political violence, are just calling it quits altogether. They’re either retiring or resigning to seek other offices.
The GOP could potentially lose its razor-thin margin even before the midterms. Once Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene officially resigns in January, Republicans will only have a one-seat advantage.
Today, Explained’s Astead Herndon talked to Leigh Ann Caldwell, chief Washington correspondent for Puck News, about what’s causing the House GOP exodus and what it could mean for the party in power.
Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full episode, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Spotify.
In the last few weeks we’ve heard quite a few Congress people say they’re going to retire, even resign. What is the scope of this angst in Congress? What’s the source of it?
The scope could be pretty big. I’m hearing from Republican sources, lawmakers, aides, and people close to these people who are expecting a lot more retirement announcements in the coming weeks.
There are so many reasons for it, but the most immediate is the political environment. It’s been a really tough fall for Republicans. They had completely underperformed in those November elections. There was a special election in Tennessee in a very red district that Trump won by 22 points. The Republican who won only won by nine points.
It’s just another data point of the political environment and the mood of the country around Republicans right now. People are looking at that and seeing the writing on the wall and believing that the House Republicans are not going to be in the majority after the midterms, that they’ll lose the majority. And it’s not a very fun place to be.
The thing about serving in the House is you get to reevaluate your life every two years, and we’re in that season where people, Republicans especially, are deciding if it’s worth it. And I’m told that many more Republicans are going to say that it’s not.
Does your reporting give you any sense of numbers and how we can compare that possible number to ones we’ve seen previously?
An estimate that one source told me was that close to 20 more Republicans are set to retire.
That’s a seismic number.
It is. We’re already at 23 Republicans who have announced. So it also talks about the mood of the Congress. People are just not happy right now.
Are Democrats retiring in these types of numbers? And when they are quitting, is it for the same reasons?
Democrats are retiring too. It happens every year. But the numbers are lower for Democrats and the reasons are different. For the Democrats, most of them are in their late seventies or eighties, or they have served for decades. Nancy Pelosi is one of the Democrats who is retiring.
Jerry Nadler in New York.
It’s different on the Republican side. Troy Nehls was elected in 2020. Morgan Luttrell of Texas just started serving in 2023. He’s young. A lot of members who are younger, who haven’t been here that long, are deciding to call it quits. And that is really what’s different.
Republicans have had tough moments before. Donald Trump has been unpopular before. What is it about this year, in this time, or the next midterm that might’ve been different than just general other bouts of Trump controversy?
This term, Donald Trump has so much control over this Congress. They govern in fear. They do what he says because they’re afraid. Marjorie Taylor Greene said on 60 Minutes: “I think they’re terrified to step out of line and get a nasty Truth Social post on them.”
Threats of political violence have only increased, and everyone knows that if your name is in a Truth Social and negatively, there will be an uptick for that person. These members have been dealing with that for a long time, and that has led to retirements in the past. The ability to be an independent member of Congress has really, really diminished, and people are feeling that. They are frustrated with Speaker Johnson. They think that he is playing into the demands of the president rather than what the members want and need. They were frustrated that they were out of town for seven weeks during the government shutdown.
It’s also one of the least productive Congresses in modern history. The last Congress was really unproductive, and this one is way more unproductive. In the last Congress, over two years, 274 bills were signed into law. We’re one year into this Congress. Only 47 bills have been signed into law, and that’s big legislation and small resolutions. They are just not doing anything and legislators get frustrated. Many of them actually come to legislate and when they’re not able to deliver for their district, when they’re not able to take home wins and projects and money, people are asking themselves, what is the point?
What is Speaker Johnson doing about this? It would seem that if these retirements continue, he would have a little bit of a crisis on his hands. And even when we think about things like redistricting efforts and others, he has really chosen to be on the side of Donald Trump 120 percent. How has that blowback impacted his own caucus? And when they’re upset with him, what exactly is the reason why?
They obviously don’t want to see a lot of retirements because it just looks bad. It’s an indictment of Congress, of the job. It’s also an indictment on Speaker Johnson if he’s unable to keep these members happy, unable to make them feel that they are productive members of society, productive legislators, and that’s just not happening right now. People are really down.
The speakership seems like such a difficult job, because it’s eaten up the last several Republican GOP speakers. If we think about that role as one that holds together many different parts of the Republican party, is it always just destined to be this fraught? Or is that a consequence of our current Congress and polarization? What is the universe that Mike Johnson makes it out on the other side here with a united GOP?
I think every day that becomes a harder and harder task for him, especially when you look at polling. Trump’s approval ratings continue to fall. They’re divided on a message. They’re divided on how to deal with health care and the affordability issue. And so Speaker Johnson coming out on the other side with a united GOP? Maybe, but it’s going to be wounded and exhausted and tired and really cranky. And so the question is, if they don’t win the majority, what does Speaker Johnson do? There are definitely going to be leadership changes. And so there could be a huge shakeup among House Republicans after the midterms.
After all that talk about Democrats and their kind of fractured state, there are certainly some cracks that seem to be appearing on the Republican side too.
Absolutely. And Republicans are really worried about how the party is dealing with these trying times right now for them.
The post Why Republicans in Congress are turning against Trump appeared first on Vox.
