A veteran analyst has suggested the Democrat party could be on for a “blue wave” in the 2026 midterms.
Nate Silver believes the Dems have an understated advantage that hinges on Donald Trump’s approval ratings remaining so low. Victories for the Democrats in mayoral and governor elections earlier this year seem to have lit the fuse for a GOP blowout next year, with Silver suggesting voter turnout for the Democrat party will likely be high.
Highlighting the historic successes of Colin Allred, Silver suggested similar races could be run in the midterms next year. He wrote, “Indeed, in 2024, Democrats gave Allred a try as their U.S. Senate nominee. He performed considerably better than Harris, losing to Cruz by 8 points.”
“It was a loss, but election nerds like me are inclined to point out that this was actually a pretty good performance. Last year obviously wasn’t a great electoral climate for Democrats, but outperforming Harris’s baseline by 6 points might be enough in a ‘blue wave’ year, a distinct possibility next year considering Trump’s unpopularity and what is likely to be a substantial Democratic turnout advantage, as demonstrated by an excellent set of results for Democrats in off-year elections last month.”
Voting intention in Tennessee earlier this year saw a single digit gap between Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn in the special election held earlier this month.
While Epps thanked Trump in his victory speech, a smaller gap between the Republican and Democrat candidates has given hope to the Dems ahead of the midterms. Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee president Heather Williams said it’s a “once-in-a-lifetime” opportunity for the party to pull ahead.
Williams said, “This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fundamentally transform legislative power. We are looking at the makings of an environment that looks more like 2010 in reverse.” It takes just 19 seats on the map for new majorities and trifectas, according to Williams.
“Democrats in the states lost a lot of ground in 2010 and in the couple of elections after that, and in that rebuild process, the map changed a lot. What we are saying in this update to the target map—and frankly, our broader strategy—is that we must show up in these red states.”
“When you think about the long term trajectory of Democrats and our success as a party, we need to recognize these moments of power, and these states where Republicans have been competing, and we need to show up for voters.”
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