Although President Donald Trump has been a very divisive figure in U.S. politics, he has also been incredibly resilient politically. Trump, in 2024, was facing four criminal indictments, one of which found him being convicted on 34 felony counts. Yet he handily defeated a long list of prominent Republicans in the 2024 GOP presidential primary —including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley — before enjoying a narrow victory over Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the general election.
Trump’s victory wasn’t the “landslide” he claims it is; it was a close election, and he won the popular vote by roughly 1.5 percent. Nonetheless, 2024 underscored his ability to bounce back politically when critics are writing his political obituary.
But ten and one half-months into his second presidency, Trump’s approval numbers are weak. And conservative GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, in a New York Times op-ed published on December 11, lays out some reasons why Trump’s MAGA “brand” could be in really deep trouble this time.
“What’s crucial to understand about Mr. Trump’s poor approval numbers is that unlike during his last time in the White House, people now disapprove of him because of the economy, not in spite of it,” Anderson argues. “During his first term, concerns about him centered more on his style and approach, and his approval was lowest on issues like response to COVID-19. However, his job approval on the economy was typically a bright spot in his polling, and in my view, it was that brand attribute — a belief that, for all the baggage, Mr. Trump might be worth having as president again if he could just fix the economy — that ushered him back to power.”
Politically, Anderson observes, Trump finds himself in “ominous territory” — and “affordability” has gone from being “an issue of strength” to being a liability.
“If Mr. Trump is to win back the issue of affordability and boost his job approval rating,” the GOP pollster writes, “he must carefully thread the needle his predecessor was unable to. He must acknowledge Americans’ pain rather than dismiss it as a ‘con job’…. If Mr. Trump is to turn things around before next year’s midterm elections, he will need focused messaging, along with concrete results Americans can feel in their pocketbooks.”
Anderson adds, “Eggs may be cheaper today than one year ago, but many things people pay for are not, and the job approval numbers for Mr. Trump reflect that pain.”
Kristen Soltis Anderson’s full op-ed for the New York Times is available at this link (subscription required).
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