When Thai and Cambodian troops clashed this summer, they fought in contained areas near contested temples and frontline military positions. The use of air power was limited, and within five days they reached a cease-fire.
The root of this week’s hostilities remains the same — a decades-old border dispute — but the scope has been broader.
Thailand has expanded aerial warfare, using F-16 fighter jets and drones to strike buildings that it says are weapons depots and military command centers. Cambodia has responded by firing rockets into Thailand, with each side claiming the other had targeted civilian areas. More than a dozen people have been killed and roughly 600,000 displaced from near the border, twice as many as in July.
Thailand’s army chief has said the fighting will continue until the army reaches its objective of “crippling Cambodia’s military for a long time to come.” Cambodia has a much smaller and weaker-equipped military, but its forces have shown no sign of capitulating.
President Trump said on Wednesday that he plans to talk with the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia. In July, he used the threat of tariffs to get them to the negotiating table, a strategy he claims has helped him end several conflicts. He is likely to try the same approach again with the Southeast Asian neighbors, but circumstances have changed.
“This will almost certainly go on longer than the five-day war of last July,” said Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based analyst with Janes, a publication specializing in defense and security. Now the Thai military, he said, is “much more frustrated with the Cambodian side, and is keen to deliver a lesson to the Cambodian military that it won’t forget for the coming years.”
Thailand’s prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, has delegated broad authority to the military to manage the current conflict, which the Thais say was launched in retaliation for a Cambodian attack that killed one Thai soldier. On Thursday, Mr. Anutin appeared circumspect about Mr. Trump’s impending call, telling reporters that he would explain to the president the causes that developed into the current hostilities.
Some analysts say Mr. Anutin has an incentive to drag out the crisis. Last month, he had come under criticism for mismanaging the response to severe floods in southern Thailand. With a general election coming up early next year, they said, he is likely to try and capitalize on a rally-around-the-flag effect.
“He’s going to use this nationalism card to brandish against the opposition,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. “It’s a recipe for more conflict.”
In a statement, Thailand’s foreign ministry said this was “an unfounded assumption.”
“The current conflict with Cambodia is not in Thailand’s interest nor does Thailand derive any benefit from it,” the ministry said.
Cambodia, which has said it is willing to accept external mediation, has not backed off militarily. While its armed forces are less modern than Thailand’s, they have many Soviet-era BM-21 rockets and Chinese-made air-defense systems that can inflict damage.
Crucially, analysts say nationalism in each country has risen to levels that could make de-escalating hard.
“This time it’s very, very different. There are no ifs or buts,” said Ou Virak, president of Future Forum, a public policy think tank in Phnom Penh, Cambodia’s capital. “Cambodians are pretty much hunkered down and united against what seems to be aggression by a bigger neighbor.”
At an evacuation center in Huy Leng in Cambodia’s Banteay Meanchey province, Sar Tha, 65, said he was skeptical about Mr. Trump’s efforts.
“He didn’t help effectively last time,” he said.
Doungjan Sadsuwan, who is sheltering at an evacuation center in Buriram province in Thailand, said she did not think Mr. Trump’s call would help.
“Yes, America is big, but I don’t think they will listen,” said Ms. Doungjan, who had to flee her home on Monday because of the fighting. “It’s already at this level where even the lay people are willing to fight.”
Sroisuwan Sapmak, 37, an elephant mahout from the Thai province of Surin, pointed out that hostilities only paused for a while before they resumed again. “I don’t think any third party can help,” she said.
Mr. Anutin has appeared to rule out talks, saying on Monday that “from now on, there will be no negotiations of any kind.” Thai officials have also indicated that they do not like being dictated to by Washington, a longtime ally.
“There was no real buy-in from” either side, said Sebastian Strangio, Southeast Asia editor at The Diplomat, a news website focused on the Asia-Pacific region. “They came to the table as a result of pressure from the outside. They hadn’t resolved any of their outstanding issues. It’s no surprise that this agreement has collapsed so quickly.”
There are also doubts as to how much energy Mr. Trump will devote to ending the fighting. In October, he was given a big ceremony in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and photo opportunities that allowed him to tout the conflict as one of many he has ended.
“There’s no near-term version of any of that that’s coming down the bucket, so I just don’t think he’ll be that engaged in it,” said Thomas Pepinsky, a professor of politics specializing in Southeast Asia at Cornell University.
But even with no off-ramp in sight, Mr. Trump could still play a part by pushing both sides to make compromises. Cambodia has always been more eager to have Mr. Trump’s intervention — in August, it nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a former foreign minister of Thailand, said Thailand is hoping that Mr. Trump can persuade Cambodia to go back to the details of the peace agreement that was brokered by Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia. One major issue for Thailand, he said, is the removal of land mines from the disputed border region.
“That would be the way for it to work. I don’t think linking it just to tariffs would be the appropriate way,” he said.
Mr. Trump should turn to a multilateral approach to solve the crisis “rather than rely on coercive power to produce a form of peace that is prone to collapse,” said Fuadi Pitsuwan, a political scientist at Thammasat University in Bangkok.
But he added: “Lasting peace requires genuine willingness from both sides to come to the negotiation table. We are not seeing that at the moment.”
Muktita Suhartono contributed reporting from Surin, Phuriphat Dejsuphong from Buriram, Sun Narin from Banteay Meanchey in Cambodia, and Kittiphum Sringammuang from Bangkok.
Sui-Lee Wee is the Southeast Asia bureau chief for The Times, overseeing coverage of 11 countries in the region.
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