The decision by María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader, to leave her homeland after more than a year in hiding has drastically raised the stakes in the unfolding standoff over Venezuela’s future.
Ms. Machado said in an audio message published by the Nobel Peace Prize committee on Wednesday that she had left Venezuela and was traveling to Oslo to participate in the festivities surrounding the awarding of this year’s prize to her.
The news thrust Ms. Machado into the global spotlight, electrified her movement and re-established her as a major player in an escalating game of brinkmanship between President Trump and the Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro.
Ms. Machado, 58, received the Peace Prize for mounting a victorious election campaign last year against Mr. Maduro, who ignored the results, declared himself the winner and repressed those who challenged his claim to power.
Ms. Machado missed the award ceremony in Oslo on Wednesday, and her whereabouts remained unknown by day’s end. The Norwegian government said she was scheduled to meet the country’s prime minister on Thursday morning.
The announcement of her imminent arrival, however, added a dramatic twist to a powerful political narrative: The courageous Venezuelan opposition leader, recognized with one of the world’s most prestigious awards for her struggle for democracy, was about to be reunited with supporters during a crucial moment in her country’s modern history.
Longer term, Ms. Machado’s decision carries major political risks for the Venezuelan opposition, whose previous leaders have withered into relative obscurity after going into exile.
Venezuela’s government, which has jailed hundreds of Ms. Machado’s supporters, has said the opposition leader would be considered a fugitive if she left the country. Analysts and Venezuelan government insiders say it is highly unlikely that Mr. Maduro would allow Ms. Machado to return to the country in the absence of a deal that would keep his government in power.
“This is a really vital moment for María Corina,” said Geoff Ramsey, a Washington-based Venezuela expert at Recorded Future, a global threat intelligence company. “The obstacle she faces now is to ensure that she can turn this moment into a trigger for change, rather than simply long-term exile.”
Ms. Machado’s re-emergence on the world stage comes as Mr. Trump faces a choice on how to proceed with his pressure campaign against Mr. Maduro, whom the Trump administration has labeled the head of a terror organization seeking to flood the United States with drugs and criminals.
Mr. Trump has amassed the largest naval armada in the Caribbean since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and has been making increasingly explicit threats against Mr. Maduro. (On Wednesday, Mr. Trump said, without providing any further details, that the United States had seized a tanker off the Venezuelan coast).
But the two leaders also spoke by phone last month, and the Venezuelan government this month restarted accepting deportation flights from the United States, fueling speculation that the two sides may settle the conflict diplomatically.
It is unclear how and when Ms. Machado left Venezuela. A Wall Street Journal report citing U.S. officials claimed that she left Venezuela by boat on Tuesday. Venezuelan officials in private claim that she had left days earlier with the knowledge of the government. The officials requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Ms. Machado’s representatives have not commented on the date or manner of her departure.
She has long rejected any negotiations with Mr. Maduro’s government, arguing that he would leave power only by force. She has been a steadfast supporter of Mr. Trump’s military pressure campaign against Mr. Maduro, and she has avoided criticizing American airstrikes against suspected drug traffickers at sea, which many legal experts say amount to extrajudicial killings.
Now abroad, Ms. Machado will have an opportunity to more effectively lobby the American government and other international allies for her cause, analysts said.
“The U.S. policy toward Venezuela is moving quickly, and this is an opportunity for Machado to try and steer Washington’s strategy more clearly toward regime change,” Mr. Ramsey said.
A higher public profile, however, will also bring greater public scrutiny to her policies and statements, said Christopher Sabatini, a Latin America expert at Chatham House, a London-based international affairs research group.
Explicit support for violent actions without the application of due process risks exposing Ms. Machado to criticism of warmongering and reducing her international support, he said. At the same time, insufficient support for Mr. Trump’s policies risks drawing the ire of a notoriously thin-skinned president.
“She is a de facto spokeswoman for democracy in Venezuela, and how she is going to thread this needle, I don’t know,” Mr. Sabatini said.
Ms. Machado has already come under scrutiny for exaggerating Mr. Maduro’s ties to drug trafficking as the Trump administration tries to make the case that Venezuela, a relatively minor player in the drug trade, is flooding the United States with deadly drugs.
Ms. Machado has also waded into highly contentious political disputes in the United States related to Mr. Trump’s false claims that he won the 2020 presidential election. In recent weeks, she has amplified debunked claims that Venezuela’s government rigged elections in the United States.
Mariana Martínez has contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela.
Anatoly Kurmanaev covers Russia and its transformation following the invasion of Ukraine.
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