It’s been nearly 30 years since there was a Democratic mayor of Miami. The party is showing confidence it can turn the tide on Tuesday.
While technically a nonpartisan election, the race has drawn the attention of President Donald Trump, who has endorsed former Miami city manager Emilio T. González, a Republican, for the job, and the Democratic National Committee, who is behind former county commissioner Eileen Higgins, a Democrat.
Why does the race matter in a national context? The outcome will offer a snapshot of voters’ attitudes in a closely-watched part of the country.
South Florida has moved to the right, and a Democratic win would mark a welcome shift there for the party at the end of a successful election year across the country. On the other side, Republicans are hoping to show strength in an area where they’ve been dominant in local elections and reasons for optimism heading into 2026.
Local strategists in both parties caution not to overread the results as too indicative of broader trends. But operatives in Miami and beyond will be watching closely as the returns come in. Here’s what to know:
What are Miami’s politics?
Miami, a majority Hispanic city with roughly half a million residents, last had a Democrat for mayor for a brief stretch ending in 1998, even though the party has held an edge in voter registration. Historically, Republicans have tended to do better turning out their voters in the city’s off-year election for mayor, whose powers are limited in Miami.
While Kamala Harris narrowly won the city with 50 percent of the vote to Trump’s 49 percent, that was down from Joe Biden’s 19-point win there over Trump in 2020, according to a Washington Post analysis of Florida precinct data.
Last year, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate in 36 years to win Miami-Dade County, which includes the city of Miami. Trump has long touted his inroads in South Florida and is planning to build his presidential library in Miami.
As of Monday night, more than 9,500 Democrats had voted — either by mail or in-person early voting, compared to nearly 7,700 registered Republicans and more than 5,350 people with no party affiliation, according to an unofficial count shared by Miami’s government.
What’s the race been like?
The contest started to draw attention after city commissioners in June attempted to postpone the November election until 2026 without voter approval. The controversial decision would have effectively given Miami’s elected officials, including term-limited Mayor Francis Suarez, a Republican and Trump ally, an additional year in office. However, a judge ruled against it and the election proceeded as originally planned.
The race has largely centered on local issues such as the city’s lack of affordable housing and property taxes. Both candidates have been vocal in their rejection of corruption and political dynasties that have dominated Miami City Hall for decades.
Many Florida strategists and leaders are cautioning that Tuesday’s results should not be taken as a referendum on Trump’s second term or a clear indicator of expected midterm outcomes in South Florida. But some Democrats say they believe the recent crush of national political figures and groups on both sides wading into the race has only served to hurt González, given broader trends in the electorate.
“It’s no longer a Miami mayoral race. It’s now a proxy fight between the Democrats versus the Republicans,” said Fernand Amandi, a longtime Democratic strategist based in Miami.
Why are Democrats confident?
Democrats’ confidence stems in part from Higgins’s performance in the Nov. 4 general election, in which she won 36 percent of the vote in a field of 13 candidates, nearly double González’s 19 percent. That was not enough to win the election outright because she did not secure a majority of the vote.
The party is also emboldened by a political climate that has been favorable in elections this year. Trump’s low approval rating has boosted their confidence up and down the ballot across the map. Concerns about his immigration enforcement policy have also resonated in Florida and beyond, worrying some Republicans.
Democrats are aiming to notch another win, following marquee statewide victories in Virginia and New Jersey last month and over-performances in special elections from Tennessee to Iowa.
After the November election, the Democratic National Committee got involved in the Miami race, recruiting and training bilingual volunteers and hosting phone banking events in support of Higgins.
Potential 2028 presidential candidates have also gotten involved. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) was in Miami on Sunday to campaign with Higgins. Higgins’s campaign on Friday promoted an endorsement video from former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Higgins, who would be the city’s first woman mayor, said in an interview that it was great to see national interest in her race but sought to emphasize local issues.
“People want their local government to focus on them,” Higgins said. “And what we have now, whether it’s in Washington or in Tallahassee, are governments that are talking about things that aren’t productive to our economy, aren’t welcoming to people, and aren’t good for the future of our environment.”
One of Higgins’s takeaways from the November elections in Virginia and New Jersey, she said, was that “people wanted moderate voices” who will tackle the issues that matter to them like affordability.
What are Republicans saying?
Republicans in Florida have downplayed the significance of a potential Higgins win and some have sought to preemptively rebut any Democratic celebration, arguing a GOP loss shouldn’t be viewed as a broader sign of erosion of support for Trump and the party, noting the city voted for Harris in 2024.
Last month, Trump endorsed González in a Truth Social post, vowing that the Republican candidate will “NEVER LET YOU DOWN.” Trump, who misspelled González’s last name in the post, said González would “fight tirelessly” to strengthen the economy, “stop migrant crime” and cut taxes, among other issues.
González thanked Trump for his support, writing on X that “Miami’s future is on the line, and your support sends a powerful message that our city deserves strong, common-sense leadership.”
González did not grant a request for an interview.
Trump on Sunday shared another message of support for González, saying he is “FANTASTIC! and Tuesday’s election “is a big and important race!!!”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and the state’s Republican Sens. Ashley Moody and Rick Scott have endorsed González. On Friday, Scott campaigned with González, a retired U.S. Army colonel, in a “Keep Miami Red” rally held at Versailles, an iconic Cuban restaurant.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a potential 2028 presidential candidate, also waded into the Miami race, endorsing González before the November general election and referring to him as a “dear friend and fellow Cuban-American.”
Republicans have sought to paint Higgins as too far left for Miami, while Democrats have described González as a MAGA Republican — strategies that follow the playbooks both parties have used in other contests across the country.
“We’ve seen a rise of obviously left ideologies across the country, but Miami is a bastion of freedom and for liberty,” said Juan Carlos Porras, a Republican state representative. “It’s important that we have a mayor that represents us, represents our values, and is willing to fight for the same things that we all fight for here in the state of Florida.”
Lenny Bronner contributed to this report.
The post Democrats look for a breakthrough win in Miami mayoral election appeared first on Washington Post.
