This weekend, I traded chilly New York City for a few days in Phoenix, trying to get as many cellphone numbers as possible from the Democratic governors who descended on a storied hotel for a boozy holiday gathering.
There, governors and candidates told me and my colleagues about their efforts to battle the high cost of living, and they fixated on President Trump’s falling approval ratings.
But perhaps no subject stirred more passion or conviction than the question of whether one of their own could be the 2028 Democratic nominee, or perhaps the next president.
“Anyone who says, ‘We can’t have this one because they’re from the coast, or this one because they’re from the middle of the country, or this one because of their faith, or this one because of their gender, or this one because of their identity’ — B.S.,” Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan colorfully declared. “Any one of my colleagues would be a phenomenal candidate.”
Democratic governors have long been convinced that the next generation of party leaders will come from their ranks. There’s certainly a long list of people who could test that theory in 2028, including Gavin Newsom of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania (not to mention Whitmer herself).
But recent history shows that even governors who are viewed as political juggernauts in their states often fall apart in the intense glare of the national spotlight. Just ask Scott Walker of Wisconsin — who started the 2016 campaign as a top Republican presidential candidate and dropped out well before any primary votes were cast — or the Floridians Jeb Bush and Ron DeSantis.
No Democratic governor has become president, or even won the nomination, since Bill Clinton in the 1990s, and Republicans haven’t had a governor-turned-president since George W. Bush.
Over the weekend, I pressed governors milling around the Arizona Biltmore hotel — the birthplace, I learned, of the Tequila Sunrise cocktail — why they’re so sure 2028 will be different.
Here are a few of their arguments (and you can read more about the gathering over here):
The pandemic and the fall of Roe raised governors’ profiles.
Over the last five years, Americans have heard a lot from their state leaders.
The 2020 coronavirus outbreak propelled many governors to the forefront of the national discussion — and to voters’ TVs — as they issued public health guidance and fought with the Trump administration over resources. And after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 and sent abortion policy back to the states, governors had to decide whether or how to try to protect access to the procedure.
While a backlash to the fall of Roe helped many Democratic candidates for governor win in 2022, pandemic-era politics were complicated and are often remembered as being unfavorable for the Democrats.
But there is no question that the governors who made it through those episodes are at least somewhat battle tested — and perhaps more prepared for the enormous pressures and scrutiny of a presidential campaign.
Trump has ensured they stay in the spotlight.
As Newsom, Pritzker and others have shown, Democratic governors are well positioned to turn themselves into Trump’s foils — and nothing delights the Democratic base more.
Even for the governors who are uninterested in the national stage, the far-reaching actions of the Trump administration, especially its efforts to cut the social safety net, have forced them to engage on such issues.
“I’ve done as much as I possibly can to avoid getting distracted by things on the national level,” said Gov. Laura Kelly, a Kansas Democrat and a former chair of the Democratic Governors Association, which hosted the gathering in Phoenix. “With everything that’s going on in the Trump administration, it has such immediate impact on the states in ways that governors can’t ignore.”
Democratic governors, she added, are “getting that experience on a national level that they didn’t have before.”
“They’ll be much more seasoned and ready,” she said of governors who decide to run for president.
Washington is unpopular.
Polling shows that both congressional Republicans and Democrats are deeply unpopular with Americans, even if Democrats have improved their standing with their own base in recent months.
So while senators and former administration officials have had more luck in recent Democratic presidential primaries — and often have more experience mixing it up with the national news media in D.C. — the argument goes that the party’s governors may have an advantage in 2028 because they can more credibly run against Washington.
To some in the governor-or-bust camp, Washington lawmakers have the luxury of being partisans who talk all day. By contrast, they argue, everything that happens in a given state is the governor’s problem.
“The signing in the Rose Garden or the vote on the amendment to the rule is just not real to people,” insisted Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, the new D.G.A. chair, who could mount a presidential bid himself. “What governors do every day and how we get dirt on our boots is very real.”
At the end of a briefing Beshear and Whitmer held for reporters, I asked them if we were looking at the 2028 ticket. (Whitmer, for her part, was just elected vice-chair of the D.G.A.)
“My only response,” Beshear replied with a grin, “is, this is your 2026 leadership ticket that’s going to help win a lot of governor’s races.”
NUMBER OF THE DAY
$1.08 trillion
That’s China’s accumulated trade surplus through November, making it the first time the country has surpassed $1 trillion, despite President Trump’s efforts to hold it down.
Trump’s tariffs have caused Chinese exports to the United States to sharply drop. But China has cut back its purchases of American products and ramped up its sales to other countries, and it continues to sell three times as much to the U.S. as it buys.
IN ONE GRAPHIC
Obamacare costs march upward
People enrolling in Obamacare for next year will be asked to pay significantly more in deductibles and premiums, my colleague Reed Abelson writes, exacerbating fears that they will no longer be able to afford their medical care.
Obamacare has been a major talking point this year for Democrats, who demanded the extension of the law’s subsidies during the shutdown this fall. The party’s candidates are emphasizing the high cost of living, including for health care, headed into another midterm election year.
ONE LAST THING
Opening the door to a Democrat in Miami
Miamians haven’t elected a Democratic mayor in nearly 30 years. But that could be about to change.
In a Tuesday runoff election, Eileen Higgins, a Democrat, is up against Emilio T. González, a Trump-endorsed Republican. Higgins won 36 percent of the vote on Election Day, nearly double the 19 percent that González did, but she lacked enough votes to win outright.
My colleague Patricia Mazzei writes that Democrats are looking to the runoff as a way to show that their voters are energized — even in Miami-Dade County, where Republicans have won in recent elections for governor and president and where Trump plans to build his future presidential library.
Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
Katie Glueck is a Times national political reporter.
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