China’s trade surplus with the rest of the world has topped $1 trillion for the first time, news that calls into question the effectiveness of developed countries’ — and especially President Donald Trump’s — attempts to stem the flood of manufactured goods flowing out of China.
China’s General Administration of Customs said Monday that for the first 11 months of the year, exports increased by 5.4 percent compared with the same period last year, while imports fell slightly. That meant China ran a global trade surplus of $1.07 trillion, exceeding the $990 billion surplus recorded for the whole of 2024.
“Put simply, China’s price competitiveness is extremely strong,” said Xu Tianchen, a senior economist for the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing. “The main reason behind the continued growth of China’s exports … is not … because the overall size of global trade has expanded, but because China is claiming a larger share of the existing trade landscape.”
Exports to the U.S. fell 28 percent in November compared to the same month last year, an even greater decline than the 25 percent annual drop recorded in October, according to the official data.
This comes after an October meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, when a trade truce negotiated between the two sides earlier in the year was extended. Trump cut tariffs on imports from China and Xi agreed to resume purchasing soybeans and to delay restrictions on rare earth mineralsfor a year.
Xi signaled a willingness to travel to the U.S. early next year, and Trump has said he would likely travel to Beijing in April, and both sides will be aiming to have a more permanent trade agreement ready to be signed by then, analysts said.
Xi went into the October meeting feeling confident, analysts said, because Trump’s tariff onslaught had not caused much damage to export-dependent China, even as its domestic economy was ailing. The latest data shows this trend is continuing, despite a blip in October.
That is partly because China appears to be “transshipping” more goods through Southeast Asia, despite the Trump administration’s attempts to crack down on the practice.
Monday’s figures showed an 8 percent annual jump in the first 11 months of the year in Chinese exports to Southeast Asia, where Chinese-made goods can be assembled and shipped on to the U.S. market.
China’s exports to Southeast Asia have grown strongly, Xu said. “A large part of that is likely products that were ultimately destined for the U.S., but now make a stop in Southeast Asia.”
It was also notable that the decline in U.S. exports was made up by a surge in China’s exports to the rest of the world.
That will be of particular concern in the European Union, where exports rose at an annual rate of 14.8 percent in November.
French President Emmanuel Macron, returning from a state visit to China, threatened to impose tariffs if Beijing did not take action to reduce its enormous trade surplus with the E.U. China sold more than 300 billion euros ($350 billion) worth of goods to the E.U. more than it bought last year.
“I told them that if they don’t react, we Europeans will be forced to take strong measures in the coming months,” Macron told Les Echos, the French business newspaper, in an interview published Sunday. Tariffs could be modeled after those imposed by the United States, he said.
For countries like Germany, where automobile manufacturing makes up some 5 percent of gross domestic product, an especially worrying number was that for China’s exports of cars worldwide: That soared 53 percent in November, up from an already extraordinary 34 percent rise in October.
Rudy Lu contributed reporting.
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